2016 NCAA tournament projections: Can Fresno State upset Utah?

Being a 14 seed means that the odds are stacked against Fresno State when they take on No. 3 seeded Utah on Denver Thursday evening. However, being that low of a seed does not typically move on to the next round but a 14 seed has won a game in each of the past three years, and five times since 2010.

ESPN goes one step further and mentions that between 2007-12, No. 3 seeds won 23 of 24 meetings with No. 14 seeds, but are just 8-4 in the past three tourneys. Recent history should give Fresno State some confidence they can upset the Utes.

Now lets take a look at advanced metrics on this game, and we start with FiveThirtyEight.com and give Fresno State a 13 percent chance to advance. Here is their full tournament chances.

KenPom is a bit more optimistic about Fresno State moving on and giving them nearly a 1 in 4 chances to move on and nearly a six percent chance to make it to the Sweet 16.

These odds are not the best for Fresno State but saying they have as much as 25 percent to upset Utah should give Bulldogs fans some confidence going into this game, and especially so with the recent success of 14 seeds.

The point spread on this game also leads to the indication that Fresno State has a reasonable chance for an upset as Utah is only a 8.5-point favorite.

No doubt it will take a big game for Fresno State to upset Utah but as we mentioned in our podcast previewing this game we would not be overly surprised if the Bulldogs do pull off the win.