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The West Division is all but set and is San Diego State's to lose. Nevada can win the West if they win out which would include a season finale win over the Aztecs, but the Wolf Pack will need San Diego State to also lose to at UNLV. San Diego State just needs to beat Nevada to clinch.
The Mountain is where things are still up in the air (side note: check out this post about who can win the division and all of the scenarios).
Boise State's loss to New Mexico opened up the door for the Lobos and Air Force Falcons to win the Mountain Division. Of the remaining games left, the Falcons have a 50 percent chance of winning the division, followed by New Mexico with a 31.5 percent chance followed by Boise State with 18.75 percent chance. Those are based on results and not by how much a team might be favored to win.
The Mountain Division is not clear cut but one thing for sure is that Boise State must win out and needs help. There is no scenario where a team can win their final two games and claim the division. Also, if New Mexico wants to win the division they must at least beat Air Force id they want to win the division, and there is only one scenario if they lost to Colorado State and also win the division.
Check out the full breakdown here for all of the scenarios.
As for who is on track to host the title game it is San Diego State followed by Boise State, Air Force and New Mexico a distant fourth.
| MOUNTAIN | CONF. W-L | OVERALL W-L |
| Air Force | 5-1 | 7-3 |
| Boise St. | 4-2 | 7-3 |
| New Mexico | 4-2 | 6-4 |
| Utah St. | 4-3 | 5-5 |
| Colorado St. | 3-3 | 5-5 |
| Wyoming | 1-6 | 1-10 |
| WEST | CONF. W-L | OVERALL W-L |
| San Diego St. | 6-0 | 7-3 |
| Nevada | 4-2 | 6-4 |
| San Jose St. | 3-3 | 4-6 |
| UNLV | 2-4 | 3-7 |
| Fresno St. | 2-5 | 3-7 |
| Hawaii | 0-7 | 2-9 |