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2023-24 Mountain West Bracketology: February 9

The same six teams remain as we enter the second weekend of February.

Nevada v Utah State Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images

We are roughly a month away from the start of the Mountain West Tournament! Let’s dive into this week’s bracketology update, where the same six teams are in the thick-and-thin of the NCAA Tournament chase!

Boise State

NET: 40

KenPom: 51

Lunardi: 9-seed

Bracket Matrix (As of Feb. 8): 95 (out of 96)

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 8.5

Skinny: Since we last discussed, Boise State rattled off a 38-point over Air Force, arguably the worst team in the MW, but could not secure its third Quad 1 road win against Colorado State Tuesday, falling 75-62. They have now lost two straight Quad 1 games for the first time all season, but are still above .500 in those games (5-4). They only have one more Quad 1 game until March, which will be Saturday on the road against Utah State, who’s lost two straight to Nevada and Utah State by a combined 28 points.

Colorado State

NET: 27

KenPom: 32

Lunardi: 6-seed

Bracket Matrix: 96

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 6.8

Skinny: Colorado State has won three straight and has climbed back into the top-30 in NET; two of their last three victories have been over San Diego State and Boise State, respectively. They moved to a combined 8-4 in Quad 1-2 games and will begin a stretch of five straight Quad 1-2 games on Feb. 13—including three straight Quad 1 games. It’s been Jekyll and Hyde at home versus on the road, but they have a real chance to boost their resume even further as the 2023-24 regular season campaign winds down.

Nevada

NET: 48

KenPom: 48

Lunardi: First Four Out

Bracket Matrix: 14

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 11.2

Skinny: Nevada climbed 17 spots—from No. 65 to 48—in NET over the last week. that was boosted by the Wolf Pack’s 14-point win over Utah State Tuesday evening. Their two-game win streak has been in part because of Nick Davidson’s recent play, which I talked about here. Washington and Colorado State recently entered Quad 1 territory, giving them four Q1 wins this season. They will have two more at home this next week, beginning with San Diego State and New Mexico.

New Mexico

NET: 18

KenPom: 19

Lunardi: 9-seed

Bracket Matrix: 96

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 7.9

Skinny: New Mexico still owns the league’s best NET Ranking, coming in at No. 18. Though they still aren’t projected to be the highest-seeded MW team in the tournament because of their lack of Quad 1 and 2 wins; they have five, while no other team in the top-five has less than seven. It bounced back from an eight-point loss to Boise State with an 18-point win on the road against Wyoming Tuesday, which qualified as a Quad 3 win. They have another Quad 3 game Saturday before they close the regular season with five of their final seven against Quad 1 teams, which can really help its resume.

San Diego State

NET: 21

KenPom: 20

Lunardi: 5-seed

Bracket Matrix: 96

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 5.2

Skinny: In most projection systems, San Diego State is a No. 5 seed with three Quad 1 wins and a 5-0 record in Quad 2 games. They now enter a stretch with five straight Quad 1 games—two at home and two on the road—their final four Q1 games of the season, should Boise State not climb into the top-30 over the next month. SDSU has won three of their last four, winning their second true road game of MW play Tuesday against Air Force, 77-64.

Utah State

NET: 30

KenPom: 44

Lunardi: 7-seed

Bracket Matrix: 95

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 6.3

Skinny: After getting out-manned by Davidson and the Nevada Wolf Pack Tuesday, Utah State has now lost two straight for the first time all season, dropping to No. 30 in NET and No. 44 in KenPom. They are now 2-3 in Quad 1 games this season and are currently set to have three more the rest of the way, though that could change if one of Colorado State, San Diego State or New Mexico happens to fall out of the top-30. Their net four games aren’t going to be much easier, but that’s the problem the majority of teams have run into in the MW because of how stacked it is at the top. I think they bounce back sooner rather than later.