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Defining Success The primary problem with winning through unsustainable means is that they often...

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Defining Success The primary problem with winning through unsustainable means is that they often lead to unsustainable goals. Win eight games one season, and you will feel pressure to win eight the next. With home games versus Cal Poly, Air Force and Colorado State, along with winnable road games versus Idaho, New Mexico and UNLV, we'll set the bar simply at bowl eligibility. Sustain last year's gains to some degree, and you have succeeded. But it might be difficult. Prognosis While at Football Outsiders, my friend Bill Barnwell spoke a lot about the concept of "regression toward the mean" versus "regression TO the mean." We look at projection factors like turnovers luck and fumble recovery percentage, and when we see a team that got particularly lucky or unlucky, we assume the luck will shift just as violently in the other direction the next season. It doesn't typically work that way; well, it doesn't unless you are Wyoming, anyway. In three years under Christensen, Wyoming has been quite lucky, quite unlucky, and quite lucky again. It is easy to get sucked into the pattern, then, and assume all the breaks will go against the 'Pokes in 2012. If they do, then Wyoming will struggle mightily to match last year's success. If it doesn't, however -- if Wyoming has what I will just call neutral luck -- then the Cowboys' experience and depth (and a manageable schedule) could carry them to their third bowl in four seasons. Wyoming has interesting talent all over the field (Brett Smith, Dominic Rufran, Nick Carlson, Ghaali Muhammad, Korey Jones, the cornerbacks, Mark Nzeocha, etc.), and they are quite experienced. But will they get the bounces? Wyoming has won games without the benefit of actually being very good in recent years, and now they are positioned to get quite a bit better. There's something to be said for that. Bill Connelly, SB Nation on Wyoming

Defining Success The thing about the Mountain West is, while there is typically quality at the...

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Defining Success The thing about the Mountain West is, while there is typically quality at the top, the bottom half of the conference is almost always quite weak. That means that, if a lesser team like New Mexico or UNLV can even improve to the 95th-100th range, they could improve their win total by a decent amount. But neither school has ranked that high in a while. Still home games versus Northern Arizona, New Mexico, Wyoming and a depleted Air Force squad (not to mention Minnesota and Washington State), should portend more than two wins. We'll be conservative and set the bar at three this time around. Prognosis Despite losses in both the receiving corps and secondary, it is fair to believe that UNLV will improve, at least slightly, on both sides of the ball. But "improvement" could just mean "110th on offense, 100th on defense." Hauck has a reasonably experienced squad, and the Rebels' recruiting rankings are not terrible, but because of both recent and long-term history, it is difficult to expect anything more than minor steps forward. Four years ago, the chancellor of the Nevada universities said he has no idea how to remedy the UNLV program. After two years in charge, Hauck has accomplished only baby steps. An elixir may be out there somewhere, but as with other maladies that originate in Las Vegas, recovery is long and arduous. Bill Connelly, SB Nation on UNLV

Defining Success When you've won three games in three years, the bar is going to be set awfully...

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Defining Success When you've won three games in three years, the bar is going to be set awfully low. But if Davie can engineer even minor improvement this fall, there are some winnable games on the docket. Texas Southern, Texas State and Wyoming come to Albuquerque, while trips to New Mexico State, UNLV and Colorado State are far from intimidating. Still, set the bar at two wins and allow yourself to be pleasantly surprised by anything beyond that. Prognosis Bob Davie had to know he was walking into a dire situation, but it appeared that even he was a bit surprised by what he found this spring. Al Golden proved that you can engineer a turnaround within three or four years, but it will take at least a couple of autumns for Davie to establish any sort of groundwork here. As I mentioned at the top, Davie was far from a wonderfully high-upside hire, but he could certainly serve a role as a fixer -- clean up the mess left behind by Locksley, build back depth and fan interest, and set the table for another coach to succeed. New Mexico needs what Davie has to offer -- discipline, physical play, etc. -- and in a few years the Lobos will probably need something different. Bill Connelly, SB Nation talking New Mexico

Submit your best name for the new Mountain West-Conference USA merger.

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Submit your best name for the new Mountain West-Conference USA merger.

The Mtn. will broadcast the press conference announcing Bob Davie as the new head football coach...

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The Mtn. will broadcast the press conference announcing Bob Davie as the new head football coach for New Mexico live at 3:30 p.m. MT

The Mtn.

"To be honest, I’m kind of embarrassed by it," he said Tuesday. "I think it’s great to have a...

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"To be honest, I’m kind of embarrassed by it," he said Tuesday. "I think it’s great to have a t-shirt that commemorates two great programs. But I don’t personally appreciate the t-shirt because they’re not the ones who played. The people in Idaho treated us very well."

Gary Patterson on the "Won and Done" t-shirts

"As we have informed you and the media has reported, we’ve been in discussions over the past few...

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"As we have informed you and the media has reported, we’ve been in discussions over the past few weeks with the Big East Conference, regarding the possibility of our joining their conference for football only, beginning in July 2013. "It was not long ago that I came to you regarding a move to the Mountain West Conference. Unfortunately, and through no fault of Mountain West schools or conference leadership, it is simply not the same conference that we first agreed to join. The loss of Utah, BYU, and TCU, and now, potentially Air Force, dealt a blow to the quality of conference competition and their chances of achieving Automatic Qualifying status in the next BCS evaluation. So my hope for a competitive and compact geographic conference has been dashed on the hard facts of media dollars and BCS membership. And so too will it be for us. "Given the opportunities that the Big East conference affords us, not only in increased revenues and BCS status, but also to be in the company of outstanding universities, with long histories, outstanding academics, and large fan bases, we are honored to be under consideration for membership. Without question, we are being afforded this opportunity because of the incredible work and success of our nationally ranked Top 10 football program. As president, I take very seriously the responsibility to respond to the opportunities this program has afforded us. It will be good not only for Athletics, but also for the entire University, to forge new relationships with these outstanding institutions. I am always concerned about travel, for our student-athletes, coaches and our fans. The good news is that the Big East is working to provide us partners through the creation of a Western division. Conference play will be among those divisions, with a championship between East and West. "I have promised throughout this process that the University would conduct a rigorous due diligence process. We have done so, through in-person meetings, countless telephone conversations, careful analysis of options, and, currently, a review and analysis of term of membership and apportionment of revenues. There is no way to know the amount of revenue that will be realized under a new Big East media contract. Under the current Big East contract, the revenue would nearly triple the amount we now receive from the Mountain West, but the Big East contract is due for renegotiation in 2012 and knowledgeable sources universally point to significantly increased conference media revenue in the upcoming contract. No guarantees, but a very strong likelihood, in my judgment. "There have been no formal invitations, but today I seek your authority to make the decision once an invite is extended, and also to make the decision regarding the conference in which basketball and our other Olympic sports will be located. Both decisions are critically important to the future of the University and its athletic programs."

Boise State Bob Kustra, Idaho Statesman.

"I know they’re getting tremendous calls and pressures from people in the Big East, from...

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"I know they’re getting tremendous calls and pressures from people in the Big East, from administrators in the Big East, TCU has reached out and said ‘Why don’t you look at this stuff?" Thompson said. "People have to make decisions. What I hope happens is that we stop, call a timeout, take a deep collective breath. Why rush into anything right now? We know for a fact that a couple of Big East schools have left. Is that the end of it? Is there more? Why jump into something right now?"

Craig Thompson on Air Force and the Big East.

"Consistent with our strategic approach, the Mountain West Board of Directors yesterday conducted...

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"Consistent with our strategic approach, the Mountain West Board of Directors yesterday conducted another conference call in an ongoing process of vetting various opportunities for the future of the league. Building upon the strength of the new membership configuration that will be in place in July 2012, the Mountain West continues to explore options that will further advance the conference's objectives. This includes daily conversations with presidents, commissioners and athletics directors around the country. Due to the sensitive nature of these discussions and evolving strategies, they will remain confidential."

Mountain West releases a statement on the current realignment that is happening.

"The Baylor game, there is a true hatred, the way the game went last year," Patterson said. "We're...

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"The Baylor game, there is a true hatred, the way the game went last year," Patterson said. "We're going into a place that's trying to improve their program. They truly hate us. You can write this: No matter what they say in the papers, the word on the street is we understand their hatred."

TCU head coach Gary Patterson to CBSSports.com Senior Write Dennis Dodd