Fresno State 2024 Season Preview

This may not be the first time that Fresno State has had to find a replacement for Jeff Tedford, but this time feels far more permanent than it did in 2019. After taking over on an interim basis for the 2023 New Mexico Bowl, Tim Skipper once again steps into the driver’s seat in a precarious moment for Bulldog football and the rest of the CFB world. An expanded playoff gives new opportunities for G5 teams, and the collapse of the PAC-12 leaves a void in West Coast football that the MWC looks ready to fill. There may not be a better time for the Dogs to make a splash on the national stage, and this preview will dive into the chances of that happening.

Offensive Preview

Long known for dynamic offenses, Fresno State’s unit lived up to that description for the first 9 games of their season. Mikey Keene stepped directly into the starting QB job, Malik Sherrod delighted fans after a slow start to the season, and a strong receiving corps stressed opposing defenses from all sides. A collapse down the stretch of the season took a huge amount of shine off of the season, but they rebounded brilliantly in the New Mexico Bowl, exploding for 500 yards in a 37-10 victory over New Mexico St.

Now moving into 2024, Mikey Keene is back, alongside Sherrod, Jalen Moss, Mac Dalena, Josiah Freeman, and a pair of new transfer receivers that each caught for 1,000yds last year. Offensive Coordinator Pat McCann returns as well in the hopes of producing an even more effective offense in Year 2. New coach Matt Smith will have his work cut out for him turning around an O-Line unit that has been a liability since 2019, and gone through coaches nearly annually since then. Thankfully, the former Bulldog lineman himself was part of the elite 2017/2018 units and has been a graduate assistant over the last two seasons. The chances of him jumping to another job after one year seems low, and the hope is that he’ll turn around the offensive line and help protect Mikey Keene and Malik Sherrod. The offenses have done well in spite of OL play in the past, but it would be good to see the line no longer be a liability.

After transferring in from UCF, Mikey Keene quickly established himself as the heir apparent to Jake Haener. He showed many flashes of that Jake Haener spirit and skills, especially in the season opening win over Purdue. On the other hand, he also had some similar Haener moments of poor pocket presence leading to drive-killing sacks. Now, some of that can be laid at the feet of the OL, but he still needs to work on improving that awareness and when to throw the ball away. His 3,000 yards were a strong start, but fans will be looking for even higher numbers in Year 2, while cutting down the 10 INTs he threw in 2023. The hope is that Jeff Tedford will remain around the program to help tutor the QBs, but that hasn’t been announced in any capacity yet.

Behind Keene, former backup Logan Fife has transferred to Montana, leaving a battle between 2022 recruit Joshua Wood, and 2023 recruit Jayden Mandal. Wood missed significant time recovering from shoulder surgery, so this fall camp is his first time playing fully healthy. The local kid Mandal enrolled early last year, and impressed the coaches during practices. There is obviously the hope that the Bulldogs won’t need to turn to the backup QB for the third season in a row, but if they do, there is some optimism in the ability of either to manage a game situation.

Malik Sherrod and Elijiah Gilliam formed a strong 1-2 punch in the backfield last season, and both return in 2024. The attention in the conference is obviously focused on Ashton Jeanty, but Sherrod and Gilliam form their own dynamic duo after Sherrod went for over 1,200 scrimmage yards, and Gilliam had more than 500 scrimmage yards of his own in relief. Waiting behind the two is a finally healthy Johnathan Arcenaux, legacy recruit Devon Rivers, and hyped local recruit Bryson Donaldson. The coaches have spoken about wanting to increase the run game in 2024, and it appears that Sherrod and Gilliam are ready to take on the increased workload to balance the offense.

Freshman receiver Jalen Moss quickly became a favorite target for Mikey Keene, pulling in 55 receptions for 700yds in 2023. He caught the most touchdowns on the team, and the second most yards behind Erik Brooks, who is now playing in the CFL. Moss now looks to be the next great Bulldog wide receiver, and the opportunities should be there for him. Mac Dalena and Josiah Freeman return alongside him as outside receiving threats, but someone will need to step up in the slot. Erik Brooks and Jaelen Gill both graduated after the 2023 season, leaving a big void at receiver. Fresno’s coaches utilized the transfer portal heavily to fill those spots, and it looks like they’ve struck gold. They got both FCS All-American Raylen Sharpe from Missouri St and Chedon James from Idaho St. Both were 1,000yd receivers at the FCS level, and Sharpe accomplished that feat in an offense not known for its passing. Whether one or both of the transfers pay off, it looks like the slot will be covered by a strong receiving option for Keene.

While it’s no secret that the offensive line has been a liability the last few seasons, the elevation of Coach Matt Smith after Brian Armstrong left to Nevada seems to have brought with it some optimism. There is experience along the line, now it’s just making sure that the line can offer protection to the offense. Mose Vavao, Braylen Nelson, and Osmar Velez all seemed locked into their positions on the line, with the hope that Jacob Spomer will recover from a late-season ACL tear to return this year. Part-time 2023 starter Daniel Taumalolo seems primed to take one of the two remaining spots, while the other could be some mix of Oregon St transfer Campbell McHarg and K-State transfer Kingsley Ugwu. The offensive line will have a massive test ahead of itself in the season opener, taking on a truly elite defensive front in Michigan. The defending national champs represent the toughest test that the Bulldog OL will see all season, so it will be hard to gauge exactly how well they’ll play against the MWC after Week 1.

Defensive Preview

Year 2 under Kevin Coyle didn’t quite go as smoothly as Bulldog fans might have hoped, but it did have some really bright spots. They forced 8 turnovers against Arizona St while pitching a shutout, Levelle Bailey had 3 game-ending plays during an 8-1 start, and the defense rebounded to shut down NMSU’s offense in the bowl game. Now they must replace multiple starters while hoping for more consistency in 2024.

The defensive line was an up-and-down unit through 2023, and now must replace three contributors along it. Isaiah Johnson and Johnny Hudson graduated, and Kemari Munier-Bailey entered the transfer portal after spring practice. Returning player Jacob Holmes looks to grab a starting spot, but was injured through the off-season, leaving an open competition in that spot. Whether Holmes, returner Kavika Baumgartner, or new USC transfer Deljon Laffitte grab the second DT spot beside Gavriel Lightfoot will be an interesting battle to watch through Fall camp and the beginning of the season.

At DE, Devo Bridges returns after a strong 2023, and looks to be paired with the highest rated transfer in Bulldog history. Korey Foreman transferred in from USC, and the former No.3 rated recruit in the country looks primed to show everyone why he was so highly rated. He did not truly flash at USC, but he also didn’t have a coach like Jethro Franklin working with him. The Bulldog coaching staff will be looking to unlock his true potential, and have two dominating players coming off of the edge at opposing QBs.

Defensive captain Levelle Bailey graduated after 2023, and has left a large void in his absence of experience and leadership. Malachi Langley is back for another year in the middle, but it appears that the Dogs might take a two-pronged approach to replacing Bailey, pairing both Phoenix Jackson and Tuasivi Nomura in a 2 or 3 linebacker set. Both got playing time in 2023, with Jackson playing especially well in the bowl game against the Aggies. Behind these three, local player Tyler Mello has the most experience, so we may see him and rising sophomore Tim Thomas sprinkled in depending on defensive situations.

If there’s one area to be somewhat confident about it, it’s the back end of the defense. Cam Lockridge is back healthy after a chest injury took him out of the 2023 season, and Alzillion Hamilton proved his worth taking over for Lockridge. The two now return with Carlton Johnson off to the NFL, and could anchor a strong secondary for the Dogs this season. Dean Clark and Cam Bracha are also back at the safety position, and Justin Houston returns to the nickleback position after missing last season to injury. There isn’t a ton of experience behind these starters, but as long as this back 5 stays on the field, they should be able to form a strong secondary for Kevin Coyle’s defense.

Schedule Preview

With the upheaval of the PAC-12 leading to changes in the original schedule, things could be set up for another double-digit win season, or a disappointing one without a trip to the MWC Title Game. It all really depends on which edition of Fresno St shows up in Tim Skipper’s first full year. Starting the season against the reigning national champs in Michigan is about as tough a draw that a first-time coach could get, but Michigan is also dealing with a new coach and a massive amount of roster turnover from 2023. I’m obviously not picking a Fresno St upset here, but it could be a closer game than many are predicting. The Dogs always show up for big games like this, and Michigan has a huge game against Texas the week after.

Like 2023, the road game against a Big Ten opponent is followed by a home opener against a Big Sky FCS team. The hope is that 2024 doesn’t feature a 2OT nail-biter against that FCS squad after sleep-walking through the game. Sacramento St and New Mexico St come to Valley Children’s Stadium to begin the home slate, and offer a good chance at building momentum through the rest of the slate. It’s not exactly rare for a bowl game to be replayed during the next regular season, but it’ll be the first time the Dogs have done it since the 2013/2014 season against USC.

After facing the Aggies, they’ll try for a sweep of New Mexico schools by traveling to Albuquerque for the Lobos. Looking to avenge a terrible loss last season, Fresno needs to make sure that they aren’t looking ahead to a huge MWC bout the next weekend against UNLV. The Rebels surprised many last year by surging to 9 wins and falling just short of a conference title, but they won’t be surprising anyone in 2024. They are replacing their starting QB and multiple starters after the transfer portal hit them, but this is still a dangerous team under the command of Brennan Marion and Barry Odom.

The bye week comes at a fortuitous time after two road games, then the Bulldogs return home for a quasi-conference game against Washington St. Since the PAC-12 imploded leaving two programs without a home, the MWC formed a special scheduling agreement with Oregon St and Washington St to fill out their schedules. Neither game counts for conference standings, but they’re not quite non-conference games, it’s in a nebulous spot. Fresno St dominated the Cougars during the 2022 LA Bowl, and I’m sure they’d like to do the same this time.

A road game to Nevada follows, and it will be the first look at Jeff Choate’s squad in action after he takes the reigns in Reno. After getting embarrassed by the Spartans last year, the Dogs come back home to try to put the Valley Trophy back in the trophy case. Back-to-back home games bring Hawaii to Fresno for the unofficial Golden Screwdriver game, one that was sorely missed from the schedule last year.

November’s trip to Air Force could be the most pivotal conference game on the schedule, especially with Boise St conspicuously missing from the slate. The Falcons started out strong last year like the Bulldogs before fading down the stretch as well, so both are looking for a trip to the conference title game in 2024. This could serve as an elimination game for either team depending on the results of the UNLV game earlier in the year. With the new format removing divisions, it seems hard to imagine a team makes that title game with more than 2 conference losses unless there’s massive amounts of chaos.

One more bye week gives a brief respite before the final stretch, as Colorado St comes to Fresno. Jay Norvell’s team is looking to finally take a jump to relevance, so we’ll see if the 2024 edition can deliver that. Instead of Thanksgiving weekend being the traditional rivalry week, Fresno will actually be traveling to the Rose Bowl for a game against UCLA. Memories are still fresh of the amazing last-minute win over the Bruins in 2021, and it’s now been 20 years since UCLA has defeated the Bulldogs. If Fresno St is in the playoff hunt in any way, that P5 road win could be big for resume building.

Trying to predict the schedule is always a tough thing, but given where Fresno State has been since 2021, it’s hard to see less than 8 wins on the schedule. The best possible scenario would be an 11-1 regular season with a close loss to Michigan in the opener. 11 straight wins would probably lead to a Top 25 ranking and playoff discussion as the G5 representative. The more likely scenario here would be a 10-2 regular season, with the loss to Michigan and one conference loss. A 7-1 conference record probably gets them into the conference title game unless somehow two teams go undefeated. 10-2 probably leaves the Dogs outside of playoff contention with just one spot guaranteed for G5 teams, and some other teams having tissue-paper soft schedules (looking at you Liberty). Even 9-3 wouldn’t be the worst result in the world if two of the losses were to P5 teams. Tough if they bookend the season, but most of Fresno St’s players weren’t alive the last time that UCLA beat the Dogs in football. 9-3 would set it up well though for the bowl game to deliver another 10 win season in Fresno, their 3rd in 4 years since COVID.

That should just about bring us to the end of the season preview here. For all of your Mountain West news, keep it glued here. We’re less than 2 weeks away from Week 0, and the greatest sport returns to us.