Week twelve brought us plenty of suspense, and week thirteen is sure to do the same. The biggest surprise from the past weekend came from New Mexico who had an upset victory over the Bulldogs and knocked Fresno State out of contention for the Mountain West title. That means there are four teams left, battling for two spots in the conference championship game. Let’s take a look at who is left and the possible scenarios are for Mountain West Championship games.
Pretty much clinched: UNLV. The Rebels are in unless something really weird happens with the computers.
Win and In: Air Force. The Falcons have a fairly significant lead in the computers over San Jose State and Boise State.
Still in it: Boise State and San Jose State. The Broncos probably need to win and have San Jose State lose. The computer rankings will be super close if Boise State and San Jose State both win. I think the Spartans would have a slight edge despite losing to Boise State earlier in the year.
Here are the possible scenarios for the Mountain West Championship game and how we get there. The game will likely be played in Las Vegas or San Jose.
If Air Force beats Boise State
The Falcons will travel to Las Vegas to take on the Rebels, even if UNLV loses. If UNLV loses this weekend, it will come down to the computers among UNLV, BSU, and SJSU. Air Force and UNLV will be ahead of the Spartans. The only scenario where there is no tiebreaker is if Air Force and UNLV both win.
If Boise State beats Air Force
If the Broncos win, they will be watching the UNLV-San Jose State game with a close eye. The Broncos need to beat Air Force, and it would benefit them to do so impressively. Their dominant win over Utah State this past week helped them out quite a bit. If UNLV and Boise State both win, the Broncos will travel to UNLV. If San Jose State wins, both teams will be waiting for the computers to update, and the Spartans would likely have a slight edge.
If UNLV beats San Jose State
No drama here. If the Rebels win, they host the winner of Boise State vs. Air Force. They might even sneak into the CFP Rankings and add some intrigue to the final game of the season.
If San Jose State beats UNLV
The Spartans need Air Force to lose to Boise State, and even then, that might not be enough. It is going to be super close in the computer rankings if both San Jose State and Boise State win.
Here are the three possible scenarios for the Mountain West Championship game:
Air Force @ UNLV
If Air Force wins, this is the likely outcome regardless of what happens Saturday.
Boise State @ UNLV
This for sure happens with a Boise State and UNLV win. It is possible with a San Jose State win depending on the computers.
UNLV @ San Jose State
Air Force needs to lose. The Spartans need to win and move up enough in the computers to edge Boise State. If the Spartans manage to get in, they will host no matter what because of the head-to-head victory over the Rebels.
Wow...this is complicated.
Which two teams will face off in the conference championship game? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.