Week ten of the Mountain West season featured a disappointing out-of-conference loss for Air Force and Fresno State taking firm control of the second spot in the conference standings. With only three games left in the regular season, it seems like the race for the conference championship is going to come down to Air Force, Fresno State, and UNLV, with teams like Boise State, Wyoming, and San Jose State still having an outside shot. Let’s take a look at where things stand and what each team in contention needs to happen this weekend.
Current Favorites: Air Force (5-0), Fresno State (4-1), UNLV (4-1)
Outside Looking in: Boise State (3-2), Wyoming (3-2), San Jose State (3-2)
Still has a shot, but it’s not happening: Utah State (2-3), Nevada (2-3)
Eliminated: New Mexico (1-4), San Diego State (1-4), Colorado State (1-4), Hawaii (1-4)
Let’s take a look at what the top six schools will be hoping for this weekend:
If the Falcons win their next two games, they will clinch a spot in the championship game.
What needs to happen: If the Falcons win like they should, they can clinch a spot in the championship game with a win over UNLV next week. If they lose, things could get interesting.
The Bulldogs now control their own destiny. Win out and they will be in the championship game.
What needs to happen: Win and hope the Falcons lose for homefield purposes.
Win and advance. UNLV can’t afford another loss to a contender due to tiebreakers.
What needs to happen: Win and hope San Jose State can beat Fresno. An Air Force loss would be nice, but isn’t necessary.
The Broncos need a ton of help, but the path to the championship is still there. However, it will take a handful of teams slipping up in the home stretch.
What needs to happen: Win the game; pull for Wyoming over UNLV and San Jose State to beat Fresno. Hawaii over Air Force would also be helpful. If Wyoming and San Jose State win, there would be a five-way tie for the second spot.
Another huge game for the Cowboys and a win this weekend might make things interesting.
What needs to happen: Win and pull for San Jose State over Fresno State and New Mexico over Boise State. If this happens, the last few weeks are going to be wild.
San Jose State
Out of all the two-loss teams, you could make an argument that the Spartans have the best chance since they still play Fresno State and UNLV.
What needs to happen: Win the game; pull for New Mexico to upset Boise State. The Wyoming-UNLV game benefits the Spartans either way. I would probably root for UNLV since the Spartans can beat the Rebels down the road. It won’t be easy, but their is a semi-realistic chance the Spartans can play for the conference title. A loss this weekend likely eliminates them.
Which two teams will represent the conference in the championship game? Leave your predictions in the comments below.