Stats Corner: Adjusting Win Probability Following Week 0

During week 0, I still contend that is a stupid title, the Mountain West went 3-2: Utah State beat UCONN 31-20, Nevada beat New Mexico State 21-12, UNLV beat Idaho State 52-21, Wyoming lost to Illinois 38-6 and Hawaii lost to Vanderbilt 63-10. Last week on Stats Corner we ranked the MW by the likelihood of winning the conference title. This week we are going to look at how the first game of the season affected the probability for the rest of the season.

Improved their Odds

UNLV: Improved their probability 4-6%

Even though UNLV had a 93.0% chance of winning against the Bengals, they did so in fairly convincing fashion. They picked up 4-6% points for most of their games, and are now the favorites in both the Hawaii and Nevada games. The only game they dropped in probability as the North Texas game. The Rebels definitely over preformed in week 0. They went from a .4% chance of winning the conference to 1.7% and improved a 2.7% chance of winning the west to 4.9%. More importantly, their bowl probability improved from 21.4% to 42.3%. It may have only been one game, but it was the best relative start in the conference.

Opponent Week 0 Prob Week 1 Prob Change

Cal 18.0% 21.7% 3.7%

North Texas 42.8% 39.3% -3.5%

Utah State 21.1% 26.9% 5.8%

New Mexico 74.5% 78.6% 4.1%

San Jose 34.0% 39.9% 5.9%

Air Force 29.6% 35.2% 5.6%

Norte Dame 1.7% 2.2% 0.5%

San Diego State 21.3% 25.4% 4.1%

Fresno State 28.0% 32.9% 4.9%

Hawaii 26.3% 59.6% 33.3%

Nevada 46.3% 52.9% 6.6%

About what was expected

Nevada: Probability held steady

Nevada was favored to beat New Mexico State with a 78.2 probability. Their probabilities did not really change with the exception of Hawaii and UNLV, and this is due more to the other team’s performance than their own. The Wolfpack is now favored against Hawaii and slight underdogs to UNLV. There is a slight decrease in probability, as the Wolfpack did not win as easily as expected but it is negligible. This 1.5% chance of winning the conference dropped to 1.4%, and their 6.8% chance of winning the West Division is now 6.7% but their bowl chances rose from 58.3% to 60.1%, due to now being favored against Hawaii.

Opponent Week 0 Prob Week 1 Prob Change

Texas State 62.4% 61.5% -0.9%

Incarnate Word 97.6% 97.6% 0.0%

Iowa 9.6% 9.3% -0.3%

Air Force 24.1% 23.1% -1.0%

Colorado State 67.7% 66.9% -0.8%

Hawaii 37.9% 65.4% 27.5%

San Diego State 39.6% 38.8% -0.8%

San Jose State 46.4% 45.5% -0.9%

Boise State 27.1% 26.4% -0.7%

Fresno State 38.7% 37.3% -1.4%

UNLV 53.7% 47.1% -6.6%

Utah State: Probability dropped minutely

The Aggies were favored to win with a 90.6% and while they did win, they were down 14-0 at the end of the first quarter and struggled, like last year, to put UCONN away. Utah State does have a habit of playing down to opponents. While most of their individual games saw a 1-2% decrease in the Aggies' favor, their conference and bowl games actually increased as they are now favored against Wyoming and Hawaii. They are about what people expected, it just turns out there are two teams that were overestimated from the conference. By Wyoming removing themselves from the title talk the Aggies went from 4.2% chance of winning the conference to 4.6% and from 9.4% of winning the Mountain Division to 11.3%, and most importantly a 73.9% of making a bowl game has become 86.7%.

Opponent Week 0 Prob Week 1 Prob Change

Alabama 0.8% 0.7% -0.1%

Weber State 81.3% 80.5% -0.8%

UNLV 78.9% 73.1% -5.8%

BYU 18.0% 16.7% -1.3%

Air Force 49.3% 47.0% -2.3%

Colorado State 56.8% 54.6% -2.2%

Wyoming 45.9% 57.3% 11.4%

New Mexico 86.9% 85.8% -1.1%

Hawaii 43.8% 69.6% 25.8%

San Jose 70.7% 68.7% -2.0%

Boise State 18.3% 17.0% -1.3%

That Hurts

Wyoming: Dropping 8% or 13% for most games

While Wyoming was not expected to win, 24.9%, they were expected to make it closer than it was. When you lose by 32 points, it is going to show for the rest of the season. Most games the Cowboys dropped by either 8% or 13 %. San Jose State became a toss-up, and the Cowboys are now underdogs to Utah State, and Colorado State. Even New Mexico is close to a toss-up. Not the start Wyoming needed. Even though they lost a game as predicted, their 1.7% chance of winning the conference is now .8 and the 4.6% chance they had of winning the Mountain Division is 1.9%. Dropping two favored games to now being underdogs and two games now toss-ups means their bowl probability dropped from 47.8 to 28.6% even becoming very slight favorites, or toss-ups, against Hawaii.

Opponent Week 0 Prob Week 1 Prob Change

Tulsa 47.4% 34.3% -13.1%

Northern Colorado96.3% 94.0% -2.3%

Air Force 39.4% 27.3% -12.1%

BYU 13.4% 8.3% -5.1%

San Jose State 64.3% 51.0% -13.3%

New Mexico 69.9% 56.8% -13.1%

Utah State 54.1% 42.7% -11.4%

Hawaii 35.1% 50.1% 15.0%

Colorado State 53.9% 40.3% -13.6%

Boise State 24.6% 15.9% -8.7%

Fresno State 23.3% 14.9% -8.4%

What was that?

Hawaii: How long do the probabilities go?

There is losing a game you are supposed to lose and there is losing a you are supposed to win, and then there is what happened to Hawaii. They had a 72.0% chance of beating Vanderbilt and they were destroyed 63-10. Before week 0, they had a decent chance of making a bowl game, 76.2% chance. Now they are favored against Duquesne and that is it. They went from favored to underdogs against New Mexico State, Nevada, Utah State, and UNLV with Wyoming becoming a toss-up. They now have below .5% of even winning their division and a 5.2% of making a bowl game. Not saying they cannot turn it around, but that was a really bad game.

Opponent Week 0 Prob Week 1 Prob Change

Western Kentucky46.8% 26.5% -20.3%

Michigan 2.0% 0.6% -1.4%

Duquesne 97.8% 93.4% -4.4%

New Mexico State70.9% 43.3% -27.6%

San Deigo State 22.7% 8.4% -14.3%

Nevada 62.1% 34.6% -27.5%

Colorado State 37.8% 15.9% -21.9%

Wyoming 64.9% 49.9% -15.0%

Fresno State 18.3% 6.5% -11.8%

Utah State 56.2% 30.4% -25.8%

UNLV 73.7% 40.4% -33.3%

San Jose State 37.3% 15.6% -21.7%