We did this post last year, and it’s back again for 2022. Here are the current over/underbetting lines for each MWC team via the good people at Draft Kings. Take a look at each team’s over/under for wins, with some thoughts on each. Feel free to share your own thoughts in the comments section.
Summary: The Falcons return their starting quarterback and running back from last year’s team, which equates to their top-two leading rushers. On the defensive side, they return five of their top seven tacklers. Their schedule is challenging but not impossible. Colorado is the only P5 opponent, and close games from last year could go either way against Wyoming, Boise State, and Utah State. Plus, the rivalry games against Navy and Army are always tough. However, the Falcons should have no issue getting to at least nine wins in a year they are expected to contend for the conference championship.
Summary: Fans may disagree, but Boise State does not get the benefit of the doubt this year. While they are due for positive regression after so many close games in 2021, there are still question marks. The offense will have to prove they can be effective and explosive and much of that starts with a competent offensive line. Similarly, the defense must show it can generate an effective pass-rush to make the other aspects play up. Their schedule will not be as challenging as last year, and nine wins appear most likely. Eight wins is probably the floor, while ten wins is attainable, but it would be a bit of a surprise.
Summary: The Rams are riding high on excitement and expectations this off-season but a great season is far from a guarantee. They are importing many players from Nevada, most of which are ready to see the field immediately. The schedule Colorado State faces won’t make it easy, but a bowl game appears attainable. They will likely win two games in the non-conference slate, and three conference wins looks like a gimmie. Then all they have to do is win one game in five among Utah State, Boise State, SJSU, Wyoming, and Air Force. It won’t be a cakewalk, but the odds are on their side.
Summary: The Bulldogs were a great team last year and look to be even better this coming year. They have the core of their team bag and should be able to take that needed step forward to become one of the top Group of 5 teams in the country. Their schedule has some potential bumps in the road, a rematch with USC, and touch conference foes Boise State and San Diego State. However, there does not seem to be a certain loss on their schedule, and it’s easy to see them getting to at least ten wins once again.
Summary: Times were tough for Hawaii last year, and the offseason exodus of players will not make it any easier this year. Coach Chang has done a good job resetting the culture, but the big question is will they have an identity on the field? If they can’t execute their schemes or any schemes, it could be a long season. Their schedule doesn’t do them any favors, with two Power 5 teams and five conference foes who played in bowl games last season. Three or four wins would honestly be a successful season considering all the Rainbow Warriors have faced the past year, but it’s very difficult to see them do any more than that.
Summary: Similarly, Nevada seems destined to struggle during the 2022 season after the aftermath of 2021 with Coach Norvell leaving. Perhaps struggle isn’t fair to say, as it’s more of a rebuild under Coach Wilson. There are some plug-and-play players from the transfer portal, but winning five games would be nothing short of a huge success, so conventional wisdom sees them achieving less. Their non-conference schedule is extremely light, and that is where most of their wins should come from. If they struggle in the first month of the season, then it will be a long year indeed.
Summary: The odds don’t seem too high on the Lobos. And for a good reason, after they appeared to take a step back last season. To make matters worse, they Also, when you aren’t that good, not many games look winnable. Still, New Mexico better reach three wins, or else there are bigger problems in Albuquerque. Their non-conference schedule will be a good indication if they can achieve the over or not. If they struggle out of conference, things won’t be easier in their conference slate.
San Diego State
Summary: The Aztecs will likely take a step back from their remarkable 2021 season, but that doesn’t mean they won’t find success. While they lose key players on offense, defense, and special teams, they should still have the ingredients that make them great—namely, running the ball and playing stout defense. That formula should be good for an easy seven wins. They can get eight if they can beat one of Arizona, Utah, Boise State, Fresno State, or Air Force. It appears they should find a way to do that. An eight or nine-win team seems pretty likely for the Aztecs.
San Jose State
Summary: This is truly a coin flip, as the Spartans seem more like a bowl team than a team that is truly competing. They still have some core players from 2020, and they added some very talented transfers. However, they still struggled in key areas last year and appeared to be a team that was missing more than just one or two things. Their schedule indicates six wins should be a given, and as long as they can find one win among Fresno State, Colorado State, San Diego State, and Utah State, they can get to seven. It could go either way, but the odds are in favor of the over, it seems like.
Summary: It’s now or never for the Rebels. Okay, maybe not never, but year three of the Arroyo regime is time to prove it and make a significant jump in the win column. The big-time recruits from the 2020 and 2021 classes should be ready to see the field, and those players should be comfortable executing the schemes by now. The schedule has some challenging games that looked destined for blowouts. Overall, five wins is expected from this team playing this schedule.
Summary: Fans are likely reading this and getting upset, but read on. Utah State is probably due for some regression after 2021 unless they defy the analytics once again. However, regression is not the same as playing poorly. The Aggies will still be a good team and one not to take lightly. Looking at their schedule, seven wins seems the most likely, with six or eight not out of the question. Those who want to take the over aren’t wrong, but the under appears to be a bit of a safer choice at this time.
Summary: Wyoming has been a perennial bowl team under Craig Bohl, rarely any more or less. Penciling them in for six wins next season looks like as safe of a bet as anything else these days. Looking at the schedule, their out-of-conference schedule is more demanding than it was last year. They should win at least two and maybe three of those games. In conference play, three games seem certain, with an outside chance at four. The Cowboys should reach six wins in one way or another.