Mountaintop View

Mountaintop View 2-23-22. Mountain preview, no tests, joint practices, Bracketology, POTW

By MikeWittmann@Mike_SBN Feb 23, 2022, 6:00am PST

Another day, another round of links. Enjoy what we have for you today from around the conference and the college sports world in general.

ESPN’s first Mountain West Mountain preview.

Bill Connelly looks at the MWC. His formula likes Boise State and Air Force in the Mountain and projects regression for Utah State after losing so many players. He discusses BSU’s lack of big plays, AFA’s coaching changes, the Cowboys and Lobo’s lack of scoring and the rebuild for CSU.

(yes Aggie fans, we all know projections do not equal results. Prove them wrong again!)

In fact, I’ll pull this quote for the article on why SP+ isn’t high on the Aggies.

1) The Aggies were very fortunate early in the season. My postgame win expectancy measure — which looks at the key, predictive stats from a given game, tosses them into the air and says “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time” — drops some pretty heavy hints. USU’s win expectancy was just 25% in its 26-23 victory over Washington State, 22% in a 49-45 win over Air Force and an incredible 3% in a 26-24 win over Colorado State that featured a last-second meltdown from the Rams. The Aggies began the season 5-2, but with those close calls combined with blowout losses to Boise State and BYU, SP+ saw them as something much closer to 2-5. They were 103rd after the Colorado State game, and while their form was mostly brilliant down the stretch — amid a run of great wins, they also lost by 27 to Wyoming — SP+ is a full-season rating and still counted those earlier games. 2) Their recipe for success was difficult to replicate. The most sustainable and repeatable measure in the statistical toolbox tends to be success rate — how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth. USU ranked a dreadful 105th in success rate on offense and 66th on defense. Big plays and fantastic red zone defense bailed them out (both of those things also count in the SP+ formula), but Utah State was very mediocre in what is generally a very predictive stat. It wouldn’t be surprising if USU was better from an efficiency standpoint in 2022. Quarterback Logan Bonner returns, as do running back Calvin Tyler Jr. and most of last year’s offensive line. But when a team goes 4-0 in one-score games, its losses come by an average of 21.7 points and it loses the three best big-play weapons from its all-or-nothing offense, that’s generally a sign of forthcoming regression. Anderson brought in a couple of potentially big-time transfer receivers — Maryland’s Brian Cobbs and Alabama’s former blue-chipper Xavier Williams — so it’s possible last year’s late-season recipe holds. But it doesn’t usually work out like that.

NCAA dropping testing.

The NCAA Academic Committee has unanimously recommended the removal of the test score from initial-eligibility requirements. This is a huge deal as standardized tests have long been seen as a less than ideal way to measure intelligence or predict future academic success. Committee members from both divisions recommended their councils introduce test score legislation into the 2022-23 legislative cycle, with an anticipated vote at the NCAA Convention in January 2023.

Combined practices?

In the offseason of NCAA proposals, the MAC is asking the NCAA to consider allowing teams to have joint practices, similar to what the NFL does during their preseason. Of course, there would be limits and stipulations. Other sports do secret scrimmages and similar things. Although paranoid coaches would be more paranoid that info would get spread around.

Bracketology that is probably already outdated by the time you read this.

pic.twitter.com/kmvOwQzRxF
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 22, 2022

@tsnmike's latest Bracket Forecast is here!

What do you think about his tournament field? pic.twitter.com/GBIYohdVSW
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 22, 2022

Players of the week.

FALCONS SWEEP @AF_TFXC took home all of this week's #MWITF awards!

: https://t.co/bv9eG2XLfX #AtThePeak | #LetsFly pic.twitter.com/XwWZKtwMTn
— Mountain West (@MountainWest) February 22, 2022

# ⏰@UNMLoboSB's Andrea Howard is the MW Player of the Week, while teammate Emma Bramson is the MW Freshman of the Week. @AztecSoftball's Maggie Balint is the MW Pitcher of the Week. ✖2️⃣#AtThePeak | #MakingHerMark pic.twitter.com/QO0T2GC8Rc
— Mountain West (@MW_OlySports) February 22, 2022

On the horizon:

Later today: Peak Perspective: 2022 Recruiting Pipelines
Later today: 2022 Recruiting Breakdown: Nevada
Coming Thursday: Boise State Position Preview: Wide Receivers
Coming Thursday: 2022 Recruiting Breakdown: New Mexico
Coming Friday: 2022 Recruiting Breakdown: Hawaii

Mountaintop View 2-23-22. Mountain preview, no tests, joint practices, Bracketology, POTW

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