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Air Force-New Mexico Preview

The Falcons return to conference play against the Lobos on Saturday at 1:30 PM MT at Falcon Stadium. The game will be televised on CBS Sports Network.

Scouting the Lobos

The Lobos enter the game with a 2-7 record and winless in conference play. Their two wins came against FCS Maine and UTEP.

The Lobos woes can mostly be blamed on an anemic offense. They are last in FBS in total offense with 247 yards per game and 127th in scoring offense with 16 points per game. They’ve utilized two QBs this year, Miles Kendrick and Justin Holaday, and neither has been very effective. The Lobo offense makes use of the quarterbacks frequently with options, RPOs, and designed runs.

The primary running back is sophomore Nate Jones. He leads the team with 454 yards, and had his best game of the year last week against Utah State with 146 yards on 21 attempts.

The primary receivers are Luke Wysong and Arizona State transfer Geordan Porter. Porter has missed the last few games but might be ready this week.

LB Cody Moon is a big playmaker on defense, leading the team with 69 tackles, including 6.5 TFLs. Jerrick Reed is the leader in the defensive backfield. He is among the leaders in passes defended in all college football.

Analysis and Prediction

Over the last three games, the Falcons have only allowed three touchdowns and four field goals. It doesn’t seem likely that the Lobo offense has the firepower to score much against this defense. The Falcons simply need to play at the same level and make sure the Lobo don’t let any receivers get behind the defense for big plays.

The offense hasn’t really been very explosive the last two games, but they can usually find a way to score a few touchdowns, and they won’t need more than that if they don’t turn the ball over too much. Protect the ball, grind out a few long drives with Brad Roberts leading the charge, and take what the defense gives you. It sounds easy, but the Rocky Long coached defense will make it a little harder than that. I’ll say the Falcons should win 24-7.

The current line at Draft Kings is Falcons -21.5 with an over/under of 37, so the Lobos cover the spread and take the under.

On a side note, I’m hoping the Falcons give some early playing time to a couple of the backup quarterbacks and to some of the underclassmen at the fullback position. The graduations of Haaziq Daniels and Brad Roberts will create the largest holes to fill next year, and it would be beneficial to allow the younger guys at those positions to get a taste of pressure situations.