Stats Corner: MWC Rankings based on Title Chances

It would be an understatement to say the Mountain West is a little crazy this year. Not really sure who wants to win the conference or play for a bowl game. This week on Stats Corner we are ranking the teams based on the likelihood of making the conference title game, not who I think are the best teams.

Controlling their own destiny

1) Boise State

Air Force: 39.4%

Colorado State: 94.1%

BYU: 49.8%

Nevada:81.4%

Wyoming:70.2%

Utah State:85.2%

Are the Broncos the best team in the conference? Probably not. Do the Broncos have the best chance of making the title game? Yes, and that is why they are ranked number 1. Air Force is a division game, but the Falcons have already lost 2 conference games. BYU is a non-conference game and will not affect the conference race. The Broncos are heavily favored against Colorado State, Nevada, Wyoming, and Utah State. Win those games and the Air Force and BYU do not matter.

2) Fresno State

New Mexico: 72.9%

San Diego State:71.2%

Hawaii: 92.7%

UNLV: 57.1%

Nevada:72.0%

Wyoming:71.3%

If you have to lose a conference game, make it to a team in the other division. The Bulldogs to have a conference loss, but it is to the Broncos and they have a win over San Jose State, putting them, currently, in the driver’s seat. It also helps that they are favored in all games the rest of the year.

3) Wyoming

Utah State: 66.5%

Hawaii: 67.1%

Colorado State: 73.3%

Boise State: 29.8%

Fresno State: 28.7%

See the first half of the Boise State paragraph above. The difference is, Wyoming needs to win out to claim the division title and that is difficult with both Boise State and Fresno State at the end of the season.

4) Utah State

Wyoming: 33.5%

New Mexico: 74.1%

Hawaii: 63.6%

San Jose State: 33.9%

Boise State: 14.8%

As weird as it seems, the Aggies control their own destiny. Their one conference lost is to UNLV in the other division and they have a win over Air Force. While they are only favored in 2 games, if they win out they go to the title game. It’s a tall order, and they really need to focus on winning three games and going to a bowl game. But technically, they control if they go to the title game and therefore they are third in this ranking.

5) San Diego State

Nevada: 61.5%

Fresno State: 28.8%

UNLV: 55.8%

San Jose State: 36.4%

New Mexico: 60.8%

Air Force: 25.7%

Win divisional game, lose conference game to team outside your division and you still control your own destiny. Put the Aztecs in the same boat as the Aggies. To make it, though they have to win out, that will be tough being underdogs in two divisional games, Fresno State and San Jose State, but the rankings are on the chance of making it to the conference title game, so here we are.

Still seriously in the running, but need some help

6) San Jose State

New Mexico State:90.0%

Nevada: 87.2%

Colorado State: 91.9%

San Diego State: 63.6%

Utah State: 66.1%

Hawaii: 94.6%

Are the Spartans the sixth best team in the conference? No. But when you lose a divisional game, you lose control of your destiny. That is what happened with they lost to Fresno State. While San Jose State is favored the rest of the way and could (should) finish 10-2, they need Fresno State to lose another game to make it.

7) Air Force

Boise State: 60.6%

Army: 72.8%

New Mexico: 93.3%

Colorado State: 94.8%

San Diego State: 74.3%

Good news, the Falcons are favored to win every game the rest of the year. More good news, they are favored to win the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. Bad news, due to losses against Wyoming and Utah State, it is unlikely for the Falcons to make it to the conference game. Air Force is a pretty good example of the MWC season in a nutshell. Dominating wins over Northern Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and UNLV, then bad news losses. The Falcons can play spoiler to teams above them, specifically Boise State and San Diego State, where the Falcons are favored to win both. That would change the rankings of teams above them, but it would take absolute chaos for the Falcons to make the title game, but then again this is the MWC 2022 football season we are talking about.

8) UNLV

Notre Dame: 4.7%

San Diego State: 44.2%

Fresno State: 42.9%

Hawaii: 66.6%

Nevada:72.5%

The thing going for the Rebels is they only have one divisional lost, they thing against the Rebels is their two conference wins were against the other division and a loss to San Jose State. San Diego State and Fresno State are not too far off a toss up and favored against Hawaii and Nevada mean the Rebels could influence the division race even if they do not win it.

9) Colorado State

Hawaii: 72.5%

Boise State: 5.9%

San Jose State: 8.1%

Wyoming: 26.7%

Air Force: 5.2%

New Mexico: 51.0%

The only reason the Rams are in this category is the win over Nevada. They still have to play everyone in their division except Utah State, and are only favored against Hawaii and New Mexico. So, they can make it, but let’s be real, it’s not happening.

Title expectations are gone (if they were there to begin with)

10) Hawaii

Colorado State: 27.5%

Wyoming: 32.9%

Fresno State: 7.3%

Utah State: 36.4%

UNLV: 33.4%

San Jose State: 5.4%

At 1-1 it might have been possible to place Hawaii up a section, but heavy underdogs including two games with a single digit change of winning. The Rainbow Warriors are not shaking up the conference race.

11) New Mexico

Fresno State: 27.1%

Utah State: 25.9%

Air Force: 6.7%

San Diego State: 39.2%

Colorado State: 49.0%

With two teams at 0-3 in conference it was hard to decide 11 and 12. With a game a toss-up, New Mexico gets the edge.

12) Nevada

San Diego State: 38.5%

San Jose State: 12.8%

Boise State: 18.6%

Fresno State: 28.0%

UNLV: 27.5%

At 0-3 and with almost no chance of winning a conference game the Wolfpack are at the bottom of the conference. Maybe next year.