All the reports.. so many... that Texas and Oklahoma are going to the SEC... so of course everything has to change now... but how will it change.. there are so many possibilities.
Right now it seems everyone assumes the proposed change to the playoff will go through to 12 teams, but if the big 12 collapses will we still see a 12 team format? Will they still guarantee the top 6 conference champs get entry? I could see the playoff only going to 8, or going to 12 and they reduce the guaranteed spots to 5 conference champs.. I mean there's no way they want to see multiple G5 teams in the playoff each year... speaking of...
Are G5 teams still going to be a thing? I mean the P5 still have the autonomy thing going on.. that is to say they can make changes without NCAA input if they choose.. so there could still be a gap.. aside from that the main difference is who is in power making choices such as rankings to ensure those teams stay well above the G5, and of course the money.
So what happens when Texas and Oklahoma leave? The PAC could absorb the Big 12 which has been rumored to be discussed, but they have no need to take them all. They could take the best 4 which would probably be OKST, TCU, Iowa State, and maybe Texas tech. But if that leaves the other 4 teams without a new home, I could see them trying to enforce the media grant of rights clause of the other teams costing them millions of dollars to go to the Pac. Would the other teams find a new P5 home? The Big 10 or ACC could look to expand to 16 to keep up with the other conferences, and if they do, will they just take the leftovers? You have to think the Big 10 would be more appealing to some so I could see OKST and Iowa State going there instead of the PAC... What does the PAC do then? Take the leftovers? Or do they look to the MWC to poach BSU, SDSU, Fresno, CSU? Maybe they pickup BYU finally?
Maybe the 8 Big 12 teams decide they have a better chance to keep their power status by expanding? They may be able to grab some AAC teams and MWC teams.. but is the new Big 12 worth it to jump to? Possibly.. WV was good awhile back. KState has been good at time. Kansas is a basketball power and so is Baylor. But how quick do you make the jump? Boise State tried to jump to the Big East but had to step back when it continued to implode.. that should serve as a lesson to any G5 team considering going to the Big 12.
So what should the MWC be doing? Not sitting on their hands! If Craig (Hair) Thompson has learned anything over the years, he should be calling Kstate, Kansas, Okst, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU and maybe even the others. He should be laying out a welcome mat and creating a powerpoint with all the benefits of joining the MWC. If the playoff does expand, each of those teams could drastically improve their chances of actually making it in by coming to a conference where they can actually compete. Will those team be reluctant to join the MWC? Of course.. but would it be better than finding themselves the last 1 picked in dodgeball? You bet! If the MWC were able to add 4 big 12 teams, we would close the gap with the AAC and expand our profile. I could even see that leading to a much better tv deal. If the MWC cant do that, and doesn't lose any members, should they look to add teams to get to 16 like the others?
Likewise, the AAC could and probably already is courting those same teams, while also sweating about the possibility of losing teams. I could see the ACC trying to pick up UCF and Memphis if they want to keep up with the SEC.
But what is my ideal situation? As a BSU fan, of course I hope to get in the Pac 12. For this to happen, the Big 12 teams need to either stick together and try to reform or get snatched up by the ACC, Big 10, and AAC. If the Pac can't fill with the best of the Big 12, would they really prefer Texas tech over BSU? Kstate over SDSU? It's hard to say.
No matter what happens, every FBS team out there should have their eyes open, and every conference commissioner should have their best used car salesman pitch ready to go.