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Boise State Schedule Breakdown

The toughest schedule in school history is now official

NCAA Football: Marshall at Boise State Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, the Mountain West released the league schedule and there were a few surprises (BSU-SDSU to finish out the season). One thing that is not a surprise is the difficulty of Boise State’s 2021 schedule. This will undoubtedly be the toughest schedule in school history, but it could also shape up to be a special season. Here is what to expect from each game this season:

Game #1


Reasons to watch: The two darlings of the Group of Five will face off for bragging rights (for two years). This is an early elimination game for a New Years Six game. Cincinnati will rightfully be a favorite, but both of these teams have the schedule to make a strong run. This game should get plenty of national attention and a great television spot on ESPN or ABC. Both teams have new coaches and athletic directors that add to the intrigue.

Odds Boise State Wins: 55%. I’m not super confident in this game, but Boise State generally does not lose out of conference games to Group of Five opponents.

Game #2

vs. UTEP

Reasons to watch: This game should be a beatdown. UTEP is annually one of the worst teams in the nation, and Boise State as a program is miles ahead. This game shouldn’t be close. My favorite kind of game to watch.

Odds Boise State Wins: 99%. There is always a chance.

Game # 3

vs. Oklahoma State

Reasons to watch: A home game against a Power Five school that could be ranked in the top 15. Boise State hasn’t had a game like this since Oregon visited in 2009. Boise State will have a significant disadvantage in the athleticism department, but I am confident that this staff will make sure that Boise State is competitive.

Odds Boise State Wins: 40%

Game #4

@Utah State

Reasons to watch: I think the Aggies will trend in the right direction this season, but their roster has a ways to go before it can be competitive. This should be a rivalry game, but the Aggies have to be consistent for that to happen.

Odds Boise State Wins: 95%

Game #5

vs. Nevada

Reasons to watch: This is a tricky game. Nevada will probably be the preseason favorite in the West and have an NFL quarterback in Carson Strong. This game should have plenty of points, but the Broncos will have the better defense.

Odds Boise State Wins: 70%

Game #6


Reasons to watch: It has without a question become one of the better rivalry games in the West. Zach Wilson and a large part of the Cougars offensive production is gone. A decimated Boise State squad got waxed by BYU this season, and the Cougars weren’t exactly classy in victory. Maybe the Broncos will be taking pictures after the game.

Odds Boise State Wins: 60%

Game #7

vs. Air Force

Reasons to watch: These games are always closer than they should be, and for some reason, both teams seem to forget that defense exists when they play each other. I think this game will be more like the 2019 showdown where it was close for a half, but the Broncos were able to pull away.

Odds Boise State Wins: 80%

Game #8

@Colorado State

Reasons to watch: The Rams special teams will surely be improved, right? Colorado State has a ton of questions to answer heading into the 2021 season. They have a lot of offensive talent, but will they have a quarterback? I think it will be a better game this year, but the Broncos should still win comfortably.

Odds Boise State Wins: 90%

Game #9

@Fresno State

Reasons to watch: This game has major upset potential. The Bulldogs are going to be loaded on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Jake Haener could have made a case for most improved player from the beginning to the end of the season. However, there are plenty of questions on the defensive side of the ball for the Bulldogs.

Odds Boise State Wins: 70%

Game #10

vs. Wyoming

Reasons to watch: The Cowboys always give the Broncos their best shot. Harsin’s squads struggled to find consistent offensive success against the Cowboys. This year, we will likely see another low scoring affair. But the Broncos are deeper and more well rounded than the Cowboys.

Odds Boise State Wins: 80%

Game #11

vs. New Mexico

Reasons to watch: The Lobos started to make strides late in the COVID shortened season. I think they will continue to improve, but they still have a long way to go.

Odds Boise State Wins: 99%

Game #12

@ San Diego State

Reasons to watch: Do you guys remember when the Mountain West said that there would be no out of division games the last week? I’m not sure what changed, but this could be a really fun game to finish the season. There are a few things we can assume: The Aztecs will be tough on defense and will run the ball on offense, but will they have a quarterback? It should be a fun game, and the Broncos usually bring plenty of fans to games in California.

Odds Boise State Wins: 70%

What do you guys think of Boise State’s schedule? How many games do you see the Broncos winning? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.