As we head into the final week of the regular season, five teams are fighting for their chance to participate in the Mountain West Championship game. The Mountain Division is currently led by Air Force by way of tiebreakers, with Boise State and Utah State still in the running. The West Division is currently led by San Diego State, but Fresno State is still in the hunt thanks to a head-to-head win against the Aztecs back in October. The tiebreaker rules can be found here:
https://themw.com/documents/2021/9/14/2021_MW_Football_Divisional_Tiebreakers_for_Website.pdf
Three-way ties go in favor of Air Force because Utah State has more divisional losses and Boise State lost the head-to-head matchup. Interestingly, Boise State and San Diego State play each other in the season finale, having implications for all the teams involved. Let’s take a look and see how the finale can shake out.
Mountain Division
AF win, BSU win, USU win = AF wins division Title game: AF vs FSU/SDSU
AF win, BSU win, USU loss = AF wins division Title game: AF vs FSU/SDSU
AF win, BSU loss, USU win = USU wins division Title game: USU vs SDSU
AF win, BSU loss, USU loss = AF wins division Title game: AF vs SDSU
AF loss, BSU win, USU win = BSU wins division Title game: BSU vs FSU/SDSU
AF loss, BSU win, USU loss = BSU wins division Title game: BSU vs FSU/SDSU
AF loss, BSU loss, USU win = USU wins division Title game: USU vs SDSU
AF loss, BSU loss, USU loss = AF wins division Title game: AF vs SDSU
West Division
FSU win, SDSU win = SDSU wins division Title game: SDSU vs AF/BSU/USU
FSU win, SDSU lose = FSU wins division Title game: FSU vs AF/BSU
FSU loss, SDSU win = SDSU wins division Title game: SDSU vs AF/BSU/USU
FSU loss, SDSU loss = SDSU wins division Title game: SDSU vs AF/BSU/USU
At this point, Air Force and San Diego State have the greatest chances of winning their division. There is no way for Utah State and Fresno state to play each other in the championship game.
Games this week with championship implications:
AF vs UNLV
BSU vs SDSU
USU vs UNM
FSU vs SJSU
