San Diego State has a dream start to the year. Not only are they 4-0, but they've also beaten two Power 5 programs. Sure, Arizona is one of the worst teams in the PAC-12, and Utah isn't their usual selves this year, but those wins still matter more to a potential playoff committee than any Mountain West win would. That matter because San Deigo State has a real shot to play in a New Years 6 bowl this year.
Meanwhile. New Mexico has had a rough start to the year. Sitting 2-3 they've not only lost 3 games in a row, but they only have one win against an FBS team this year. Still, they're only a half game out of first place in the Mountain division, and that means they still have some kind of shot to win the league. However, to do that they need to put together wins against top competition like San Diego State. The public doesn't really think there's a chance of that happening.
Oddsmakers love San Diego State in this game. The Aztecs are 19.5 point favorites, and they're given -1000 odds to win the game outright. That's an implied 90.9% chance to win the game. Meanwhile, New Mexico is given +920 odds, or an implied 9.8% chance to get their first win over a top-25 team since 2003.
It's safe to say that oddsmakers don't view this as much of a game, as much as a one sided beatdown.
San Diego State and New Mexico have played each other 42 times in their history. San Diego States has won 27 and New Mexico has won 15.
This series has been prone to dominance by one side. New Mexico won 8 games in a row from 2001-2008. Now San Diego State is on a 7 game winning streak of their own. The longest winning streak in the series belongs to the Aztecs who won 13 straight games from 1984-1996.
This is a must win for San Diego State. They have a real chance to run through the Mountain West in route to their first ever New Years' 6 Bowl. To do that they need to win the game they're supposed to win.
New Mexico doesn't need this game. They could potentially make a bowl game without this game, and a Mountain West title has always been a longshot. A win here would mean a ton to the program, but a loss wouldn't be a killer.