Betting on Boise: Preseason Bets

As we are (hopefully) reaching the home stretch to the start of the 2020 football season, let’s look at the betting lines available for the Boise State Broncos.

Season Total – Over/Under:

The Over/Under for Boise State in 2020 is 9.5 wins. If you take the over then you win the bet if BSU wins 10 or more games. If you take the under then you win the bet if BSU wins nine or fewer games. The Boise State Over/Under is usually somewhere in the 9 – 11 wins range each year.

If you can get the 9.5-win number, it is a pretty safe bet. My personal projection has the Broncos lossing a close game to Florida State and competing in a toss-up game against Wyoming in Laramie.

This would result in the Broncos finishing with 10 or 11 wins and would be enough to make some money. 9.5-wins is the about lowest you’ll ever get the Broncos at on an Over/Under bet, so go ahead and take the chance if you are a gambler.

Games of the Year Lines:

Boise State has three “Game of the Year” lines in 2020. These are betting lines that are made available well ahead of the football season. The early lines serve a few proposes. First, they get the juices flowing and the dollars spent in a traditional down period for sportsbooks. Also, they feature marquee games that will likely have a lot of dollars bet on them. By releasing the lines early, the sportsbooks have more time to try and get an equal amount of money bet on each side. This takes all the risk away from the sportsbook and allows them to profit no matter the outcome. Let’s do a quick breakdown of the three preseason bets that are available to BSU fans.

BSU vs FSU (-1.5; -120)

Boise State is an early 1.5-point favorite against the Seminoles. As mentioned above, I predict this to be the Broncos’ lone loss of the season. In my heart I don’t REALLY believe that Boise State is going to lose but predicting an undefeated season has always felt greedy to me. A lot of words will be devoted to this matchup as kickoff approaches, for now let’s just say that Florida State has the athletes to cause headaches for Boise State, and has a much better coaching staff in place going into 2020.

From a betting perspective, there is no reason to bet this game early. If the line moves it will likely move towards Florida State. If you want to bet on BSU in this one you are better off waiting until game week.

BSU vs USU (-18.5; -2000)

The Broncos open as an 18.5-point favorite on The Blue. Generally, look-ahead lines are limited to games that are of peak interest or games that are expected to be competitive. This is not that. The consensus seems to be that Utah State could struggle in 2020, but it’s hard to lay 18.5 points on a game that won’t be played for at least three months. Stay away from this one. Is the gameday line really going to be much more than 18.5 points? I say no, hold onto your money for now.

BSU vs BYU (PK; -120)

The oddsmakers decided to punt on this one and make the Boise State vs BYU line a pick ‘em. This means if you pick the winner of the game you get paid. Of note, the -120 in the betting line means that you would be betting $120 to cash a $220-dollar ticket (risking $120 to make $100 of profit), so the oddsmakers are giving Boise State a slight edge early on.

Boise State is at home, where they have never lost to BYU, and looking at the schedules of each team, it’s likely that the Broncos could be as much as 6-point favorites by the time November rolls around. This is a no-brainer bet. How often can you bet on BSU to simply win at home? Having your money tied up in a bet for over four months isn’t usually the best use of capital, but I’d make an exception here.

MWC Championship Odds: (-220)

Boise State is -220 to win the Mountain West in 2020. This means that you would need to risk $220 to win $100. You also must put up that money right now and won’t see any return until December. Even if you think risking $220 to win $100 is worth it, there are much better ways to use that $220 throughout the season to make a larger profit. There is almost no way to justify taking this bet with these odds.

National Championship: (150/1)

Boise State has 150-1 odds of winning a national championship in 2020. Keep in mind: this must be a real championship, won by winning two playoff games. They can’t just hang up a banner in Albertsons Stadium. For this bet to pay off three things must happen:

1. Boise State must be undefeated and win in impressive fashion. This is unlikely, but certainly possible
2. The college football season needs to be a dystopian nightmare of chaos leaving the committee no choice but to begrudgingly let the Broncos in
3. BSU needs to win two playoff games against extremely talented teams

Anything is possible, but if you could simulate the season 150 times, it is highly unlikely that BSU would win the championship in one of those simulations. It is 2020, though. The year of absolute chaos and unpredictability. If you put $10 down on the Broncos to try and profit out of the madness, more power to you.

That wraps up the preseason betting lines for Boise State. It may not be a good bet, but I’m hopeful that the football season starts safely this fall and we’ll have the opportunity to analyze many more Boise State bets this year.