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Peak Perspective: What does the Mountain West Championship Game Look Like?

An in depth look at the various scenarios for the championship game

NCAA Football: Mountain West Championship-Hawaii at Boise State Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

There is just two Saturdays left until the Mountain West Championship Game and there is still a lot of unknowns. Before the season started, the Mountain West released a statement that addressed how the season was going to move forward. There is no divisions this season and the top two teams in the conference are going to the championship game, but there’s a catch.

The minimum number of games that a team will have to play is six but many teams will not reach six games. To determine eligibility all the number of games played will be added up and that number is divided by 12, because there are 12 teams. That number that follows from dividing from the total wins is the number of wins a team will need to be eligible for the Mountain West championship. There are a number of different possible matchups for the championship game but before this discussion starts, let’s start with who is no longer eligible.

No Chance of Making the Championship

New Mexico, UNLV, Utah State, and Air Force aren’t contenders anymore. New Mexico and UNLV are 0-5, Utah State is 1-4 and Colorado State is 1-2 in conference play. Air Force only has one conference game left against Utah State and is currently 1-2. Wyoming is 2-2 and has two games left, however a 4-2 record with losses to Nevada and Colorado State doesn’t look good.

Nevada is tied for second place with Fresno State and they play next weekend which will be an important factor for conference play. Wyoming is the only team that could potentially be eligible for the a bowl game but a lot needs to happen to include no games being cancelled and for Wyoming to win out.

A chance of getting to the championship but things are unclear

Hawaii, San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State, and San Jose State. Hawaii is currently 3-3 and has loses to Wyoming, San Diego State, and Boise State. This doesn’t bode well for the Warriors as Boise State and San Diego State both earn tie breakers over Hawaii. San Diego State is 3-2 in conference and has wins over UNLV, Utah State, and Hawaii but they also have loses to San Jose state and Nevada, who as previously mentioned are at the top of the conference, so it seems unlikely that the Aztecs could go forward because even if San Jose State loses twice, they still own the tie breaker over San Diego State and Nevada would have to lose twice. San Diego State has only one game left in conference against Colorado State, so things are unclear. Nevada could lose twice more to make three loses and that would give San Diego State an edge.

San Jose State and Boise State are in the same position at 4-0 in conference play. If each can play a game where they can get to 5-0, they would become a definite eligible for the championship. The Spartans still have games against Hawaii and Nevada so their path is a little trickier than Boise State’s path.

The Broncos final two games are against UNLV and Wyoming. If the Broncos play both of those games they will have a good shot of going to the championship even if they go 1-1 in the final two games. If the Broncos aren’t able to play either of the two final games, then they will be ineligible. Considering that the San Jose State game was canceled due to delayed testing results that was out of the Broncos hands and they have been able to play every other game on their schedule, the likelihood is that Boise State gets to play at least one of the two games.

Clear path to the championship if they win

Nevada has the most clear path to the title game. They did lose against Hawaii but they still have Fresno State and San Jose State. If the game against the Spartans is canceled then Nevada’s path to the title might be blocked since the Spartans would hold a better conference record if they win the first of the final two games. If the game is played and Nevada wins against Fresno State and San Jose State, then the Wolfpack go to and will more than likely host the Mountain West title game.

What’s going to happen?

In reality, the conference title race is going to be between Boise State, San Jose State, and Nevada. As previously stated Boise State has been able to play all but one of their games and with a week off, will have a decent chance of being able to play UNLV. With five wins, the Broncos would be within the two games of the rest of the conference and have a shot at the title. With a better conference, they would get in over the loser of San Jose State vs Nevada. If Boise State doesn’t play either of the final two games on their schedule, then the championship will probably be a rematch of San Jose State vs Nevada.

Poll

What do you think is the most likely Mountain West title matchup?

This poll is closed

  • 17%
    Boise State vs Nevada
    (30 votes)
  • 72%
    Boise State vs San Jose State
    (121 votes)
  • 7%
    San Jose State vs Nevada
    (13 votes)
  • 1%
    Another matchup
    (3 votes)
167 votes total Vote Now