Mountain West Connection Bracketology: Week Five

Week four of conference play is behind us, and not much has changed in the Mountain West basketball race. Nevada, Fresno State, and Utah State avoided upsets, while San Diego State appears to be finding their stride and hopes to play spoiler. It is a huge week for the Aggies, as they look to get themselves back on the bubble with games against Fresno State and San Diego State. Let’s take a look at where the top teams in the Mountain West stand.

Nevada:

The Wolf Pack are finding their stride at the perfect time. They overcame a couple of shaky performances against Boise State and Air Force and are back to dominating once again. It wouldn’t shock me if Nevada dropped a road game before conference play concludes, but they should be able to wrap up the one seed fairly easily. This week, I am moving the Wolf Pack up to a three seed in the West Region of the NCAA tournament.

Utah State/Fresno State:

The Aggies and Bulldogs will match up this week with the winner likely being the last hope for an at-large bid. This is the game of the week for the Mountain West and should receive some national attention. The winner has an excellent chance at a two seed in the conference tournament. Seeding will be extra important this year, as teams will be looking to avoid Nevada until the championship game. Right now, I think both of these teams would be NIT squads. Likely three or four seeds.

Update: The Aggies took down the Bulldogs Tuesday night. I’m now projecting Utah State as a twelve seed in the NCAA tournament. I’m also projecting the Bulldogs to the NIT as a five seed.

Are there any other teams that have a shot to reach the postseason? What are your thoughts?