Stat’s Corner: Bias? Is there Bias in the CFP Polls?

Bias could be defined as a showing favor for or against something. In the science fields, bias is known has a systematic error. When it comes to college football there are several polls, but only one that really matters is the College Football Playoff Selection Committee (CFP). The CFB has the job of selecting the match-ups that bring in the most revenue, I mean selecting the four best teams in the nation. Some people have argued there is a bias against non-Power 5 conference, for example the 2008 Utah Utes that was undefeated winning at Michigan, against Oregon State, and a bowl victory over Alabama. They were ranked 2^nd in the final poll behind 13-1 Florida, who had lost at home to Ole Miss. This week on Stat’s Corner we are going to compare the CFB, AP, and Coaches poll for week 10 and week 15. There are other polls, but for sake of space we are just looking at first CFP and last CFP.

Week 10

Teams ranked lower by Selection Committee

Navy AP 25^th, Coaches 25^th, CFB not ranked. Despite being ranked in both the AP and Coaches polls, the Midshipman were left out.

San Diego State AP 24^th, Coaches 24^th, not ranked. Even worse than Navy, the Aztecs were ranked higher in both polls, but were also left off the list.

SMU AP 23^rd, Coaches 23^rd, CFB 25^th. While the Mustangs did squeeze into CFP, it was lower than both their rankings in the AP and Coaches polls.

Memphis AP 19^th, Coaches 19^th, CFP 21^st. The committee ranked the Tigers two places lower than either AP or the CFP.

Boise State AP 21^st, Coaches 21^st, CFP 22^nd. You would think that after Boise’s success the committee would at least keep them consistent, but nope, down they go.

Cincinnati AP 17^th, Coaches 17^th, CFP 20^th. Cincinnati had some close loses, but 3 spots lower by the committee seems a little harsh for a team that was undefeated at the time.

Minnesota AP 13^th, Coaches 13^th, CFP 17^th. The biggest drop belongs to Minnesota. The Golden Gophers were just not respected by the committee.

Teams ranked higher by Selection Committee

Oklahoma State CFP 23^rd other unranked. The surprise of the first CFP poll was Oklahoma State making the list ahead of Navy, San Diego State, and SMU despite not being ranked in either the AP or Coaches Poll.

Wake Forest 22^nd AP, 20^th Coaches, CFP 19^th. Maybe the committee took the win over Utah State as a high quality win, or maybe they were trying to prop up the ACC.

Wisconsin AP 16^th, Coaches 16^th, CFP 13^th. The badgers get a nice 3 spot bump because…. Why not?

Kansas State AP 20^th, Coaches 22^nd, CFP 16^th. The biggest bump goes to Kansas State, a 4 and 6 place bump to get over-ranked in the CFP.

There were 7 schools who were ranked lower by the Selection Committee, 6 of them were from the Mountain West Conference or American Athletic Conference. On the flip side, all of the 4 teams which were ranked higher by the committee came from Power conference: ACC, Big 12, and Big 10. Some people will argue that it is just random some schools will be ranked higher and other lower, and that is true. However, if it was random then you would see AAC and MWC schools being ranked lower and higher, the fact that it is only going one way indicates there is a Selection Committee bias against now-Power schools.

Week 15

Teams ranked lower by Selection Committee

Memphis 15^th AP, 15^th Coaches, 17^th CFP. Two different weeks, and the Tigers are still being ranked 2 spots lower by the CFP.

Boise State 18^th AP, 18^th Coaches, 19^th CFP. First week one spot lower, last week one spot lower. That seems weird.

Navy 21^st AP, 21^st Coaches, 23^rd CFP. At least they were ranked this week, but by the mandatory AAC 2 less ranking.

Minnesota 16^th AP, 16^th Coaches, 18th CFP. The token Power school that is ranked lower, the Golden Gophers have decreased their loss, instead of losing 4 spots they only lost 2.

Florida AP 6^th, Coaches 7^th, CFP 9^th. The CFP didn’t believe in the Gators this week.

Teams ranked higher by Selection Committee

Wisconsin AP 11^th, Coaches 11th, CFP 8^th. Still ranked higher by 3 spots, nothing to see here, move along.

Penn State AP 13^th, Coaches 12^th, CFP 10^th. “It’s Penn State, must be a top 10 team” said the CFP and no one else.

Michigan 17^th AP, Coaches 17^th, 14^th CFP. It’s almost like the committee is trying to boost the Big Ten East Division to justify Ohio State.

Iowa 19^th AP, 19^th Coaches, 16^th CFP. Another Big Ten team getting a 3 place bump, maybe the committee is trying to prop up the entire Big 10 conference.

Virginia AP unranked, 25^th coaches, 24^th CFP. Can’t have just one school from the AAC in the ranking.

Oklahoma State 25^th AP, unranked coaches, 25^th CFP. A one loss school from a conference with only 2 ranked teams gets in, can’t have that need another Big 12 school in the ranking.

Another ranking, another case of not a single AAC or MWC school getting ranked higher by the committee. Just once would show that it can happen and would at least give some evidence to non-bias. Four schools from the Big Ten were bumped up, along with the conferences with teams in the playoffs. Coincidence? I think not.

The strange thing is the lack of SEC teams on the list. Just one, Florida, being ranked lower. It’s almost like the committee was trying to prevent 2 SEC teams from getting into the playoff.