This article is dedicated to teams that can still win the Mountain West and what they need to happen to stay in the race this week. Two teams have been eliminated in the West (UNLV and San Jose State) and only one team has been eliminated in the Mountain (New Mexico). Let’s take a look at what the rest of the teams need to stay in the race.
We will start with Hawaii in the West. Hawaii beat Nevada and still plays San Diego State
- Root for San Diego State to beat Fresno State. Hawaii lost to Fresno State and a Fresno State loss would allow Hawaii to control their own destiny.
- Take care of business against UNLV.
The Wolf Pack still face Fresno State and are on a bye this week.
- Hope that Fresno State beats San Diego State. Nevada would would have the tie breaker over the Aztecs and could eliminate Fresno State the following week.
- UNLV beats Hawaii. Hawaii defeated Nevada early in the season and would have a tie breaker over the Wolf Pack.
As crazy as this sounds, the Bulldogs have a fairly direct path to the championship game. Win out and they are in. All three of their conference losses have come to teams from the Mountain.
- Beat San Diego State and take a share of first place.
- Hope for a Hawaii loss for some cushion in the division.
San Diego State
Like the Bulldogs, SDSU controls their own destiny. Win their last two conference games and they will be in the championship game.
- Beat Fresno State and stay in first place.
- Hope for a Hawaii loss, so they can afford to lose the following week.
Like Fresno State, it is kind of surprising to see that Colorado State still has a mathematical chance to win the division.
- Beat Air Force. Not only will this get the Rams one step closer to bowl eligibility, it will also put them in a tie for second place and give them the tie breaker over the Falcons.
- Hope that New Mexico pulls off a shocking upset over Boise State.
- Hope Wyoming beats Utah State, Utah State has the tie breaker over Colorado State.
Like Colorado State, Wyoming needs a lot of help. Unlike Colorado State, Wyoming likely needs Boise State to lose all three of their remaining games.
- Beat Utah State and eliminate them from contention.
- The Colorado State and Air Force game doesn’t really matter, because both teams are still on their schedule.
- Hope New Mexico pulls off the upset over Boise State.
- Beat Colorado State and eliminate them from contention for the Mountain West title.
- The Utah State-Wyoming game is a bit tougher. An Aggie victory eliminates the Cowboys and Air Force has the tiebreaker. A three way tie could end in favor of the Falcons.
- Hope that Boise State loses to New Mexico.
- Beat Wyoming and set up a potential winner-take-all game with Boise State.
- Colorado State beats Air Force. The Falcons beat Utah State earlier in the year and have the tie breaker.
- New Mexico over Boise State. The Aggies control their destiny when it comes to Boise State. But a Bronco loss to the Lobos would give the Aggies a ton of confidence.
It might be a waste of time, but I am going to go a bit deeper here. Boise State still has a possibility of something bigger.
- Wyoming beating Utah State would give the Broncos a magic number of one with Air Force. It also allows them to drop a game and still win the division.
- I’m torn on the Air Force game. I think Boise State should root for the Falcons to boost their SOS. A 10-2 Air Force, 8-4 Wyoming, 8-4 BYU looks like a good resume. But a Falcons loss only benefits the Broncos if Utah State losses.
- Chaos in the AAC. Navy losses to Notre Dame (very possible), Memphis losses to Houston (unlikely, but possible), Cincinnati losses to South Florida (unlikely). The Broncos don’t need all of this to happen this week, but one can dream.
What did I miss? Are there any other games that Mountain West teams should be keeping an eye on?