Zach has been faithfully keeping us doing our bowl projections each week, which serves as a week to week collection of thoughts from our team. . This post will serve as a snap-shot companion post to the week in, week out projections. As the weekly projections more or less plug deserving teams into the existing bowl structure, this one will look at every team in its own right and see what their chances are to go to a bowl game this season (Spoiler: some teams have a much better shot than other teams).
I’ll categorize each team’s chances (as told by me, so you know, it’s flawed) of making a bowl game this year with a rating system that may be familiar to some of you or may be something you’ve never heard of. If you are an avid TV watcher (like me), you may be familiar with the site tvline.com and their annual renewal/cancel scorecard.
Anyway, all 12 MWC teams will be rated from using the following: Officially clinched, A sure thing, A safe bet, Could go either way, A long-shot, Essentially eliminated, and Officially eliminated. The first and last in this list can’t happen yet this early in the season, so don’t expect to see those. Each will be followed by a short explanation.
The Falcons have rode their strong season into a bowl-clinching type of season. They look like they’re on a roll going into the final month of the season and should have a strong post-season showing as well.
The Broncos got the necessary six wins in their first six tries. The conferences least surprising bowl team has a bowl birth as the floor (if not the basement) of their standards for a season. For them, it’s a matter of which bowl.
San Diego State
The Aztecs find themselves in another season ending in a bowl game. They have a chance to make a pretty good bowl too, depending on how much they keep winning and how they other teams shake out.
Like the Aztecs, Wyoming had their winning formula and it has landed them in a bowl once again. They could end up in quite a few spots in the MWC tie-ins, and being one of the first MWC teams to become bowl-eligible is good for them.
A Sure Thing
It’s just a matter of time (one more win) and they have quite a few opportunities to do so. Fresno State, SJSU, UNLV, and Army all see like very good chances to get the win. It would be highly unlikely for them not to more than one of those games, let alone going 0-4.
A Safe Bet
Could Go Either Way
This is generous but not completely out of the picture for the Bulldogs. They should get two wins at the end of the year and if, IF, they can pull off one upset in three tries, they can make a bowl. The Colorado State loss made the road much tougher but at the time of this writing, their chances are a tick above the next two below. If this post came out a week or two from now, they’ll likely be in the long-shot tier.
A Long Shot
The Wolf Pack looked strong to start the year and then seemed to take a nose dive. Their season has shades of 2017 Hawaii with a big step back following a step forward and bowl year. Turning it around would be a great way to end the year, but it is really really hard to see that happening.
San Jose State
If I had to guess, I’d say the Spartans probably won’t make a bowl, but they should be in it until the very last week of the season. Their year has already been a success so anything else is a bonus.
The Rams are a bit ahead of the other two in this tier, but they would really have to show something different to make a bowl, so they end up here as well.
UNLV has played some teams close despite defeats, but they started their better play a bit too late to make up the ground they lost in September.
As far as New Mexico, they may not win another game this season and didn’t look particularly strong, even in their “gimmie” games.