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New Mexico/Wyoming Preview

Lobos at Cowboys

NCAA Football: New Mexico at Wyoming
Wyoming hosts New Mexico for homecoming this Saturday in Laramie.
Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

Game Time:

Saturday, October 19th at 1:00 PM (Mountain) on AT&T SportsNet

The History:

These MWC teams have met 71 times. Wyoming is 37-34 against New Mexico. The teams met in the last game of the regular season in 2018. Wyoming won that game at New Mexico, 31 to 3.

The Matchup:

New Mexico has a solid offense as the Lobos rank 52nd in Total Offense. So what has been the problem for the Lobos recently? Scoring 10 against Liberty. Scoring 21 against San Jose State. Scoring 21 against Colorado State. Not exactly great defenses they were facing. The answer is turnover margin. New Mexico ranks 128nd in turnover margin at -10 for the season. Meanwhile, Wyoming ranks 11th at +6 for the year. The Lobos will need to play a clean game to likely stay in this one.

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys have the 17th ranked rushing offense in the country. New Mexico ranks 45th in the country at stopping the run. Pretty respectable. New Mexico has the worst passing defense in the country, ranking 130th. Wyoming is not far behind at 125th. Luckily for each team, this should be a game about who runs the ball better. New Mexico ranks 94th in passing offense while Wyoming ranks 127th (right behind Air Force).

The Outcome:

The spread has the Cowboys by 19.5. The Lobos come into this game having lost three in a row and may have a hard time winning another game this season. Still, I’m big on the matchups, and I think these teams should matchup fairly well on paper. I think this game could be fairly close if the Lobos can protect the football. My prediction below assumes a fairly clean game, and the Lobos cover the spread.

New Mexico 13, Wyoming 27

If the Lobos turn the ball over 3 times or more (like the past couple of weeks), the Cowboys cover the spread.

New Mexico 10, Wyoming 37