Week four is in the dust. A strong team suffered a disappointing loss, and the class of the conference continued to pull away. UNLV suffered a tough loss to a struggling San Diego State squad; Boise State ended their three game losing streak, and Fresno State may have cost themselves a chance at an at-large bid. Do you guys remember the days where a winning record in conference play gave you an excellent chance at making the tournament? Yeah...those days are gone. Let’s take a look at how March is shaping up for the Mountain West.
Outside of that puzzling game against the Lobos, Nevada has looked like the class of the conference. The Wolf Pack are probably the only team that could receive an at-large bid at this point. I think they will end as a four seed in the West region.
If Fresno State or Utah State have any hope at an at-large spot in the NCAA tournament, they need to minimize bad losses. The Bulldogs lost to a poor Colorado State team in Fort Collins on Saturday. I’m not ready to write off the Bulldogs yet, but they will need to be nearly flawless the rest of the way to make it in. Unfortunately, if the season were to end today, I think the Bulldogs would be out. I am currently projecting them as a three seed in the NIT.
Sometimes good teams need a little luck, and the Aggies got that on Saturday. A botched call led to a game-winning three pointer and a narrow victory over New Mexico. The Aggies are fairly inconsistent, but I am still projecting them as a four seed in the NIT. I think they have an outside shot of an at-large bid if they can pull off an upset over Nevada.
Are there any other teams that have a shot to reach the postseason? What are your thoughts?