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Tiebreaking scenarios for top 3 seeds in Mountain West Tournament

We’ve entered the final week of the regular season. Find out where your team stands and what path it must take to reach the NCAA Tournament.

NCAA Basketball: Boise State at Nevada Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports

Well, here we are.

Two games remain (unless you’re New Mexico and Utah State) in the Mountain West regular season, as 11 teams are vying for one NCAA Tournament bid in next week’s conference tournament.

Nevada, projected as a legitimate contender to halt San Diego State’s run for a fourth consecutive share of the Mountain West regular season title, is tied atop the conference with Colorado State, who has endured its fair share of obstacles en route to an overachieving season.

First off, the current standings:

Mountain West Standings, 2/28

Rank Team W L Conf W Conf L
Rank Team W L Conf W Conf L
1 Nevada 23 6 12 4
2 Colorado State 20 9 12 4
3 Boise State 18 9 11 5
4 Fresno State 17 11 9 7
5 New Mexico 16 13 9 8
6 San Diego State 16 12 8 8
7 Wyoming 17 12 7 9
8 Utah State 13 15 7 10
9 San Jose State 14 13 7 9
10 Air Force 11 18 4 12
11 UNLV 10 19 3 13

And now, tournament seed tie-breaking scenarios:

Nevada

For #1 seed...

  • Wins at San Jose State (3/1) AND vs. Colorado State (3/4)

OR

  • Loses at San Jose State (3/1) and wins vs. Colorado State (3/4)
  • TeamRankings probability of #1 seed: 81.8%

For #2 seed...

  • Wins at San Jose State (3/1) and loses vs. Colorado State (3/4)

OR

  • Loses at San Jose State (3/1) AND vs. Colorado State (3/4), Boise State loses one of last two games
  • TeamRankings probability of #2 seed: 16.2%

For #3 seed...

  • Loses at San Jose State (3/1) AND vs. Colorado State (3/4), Boise State wins at least one of last two games
  • TeamRankings probability of #3 seed: 2.0%

Colorado State

For #1 seed...

  • Wins vs. Wyoming (2/28) AND at Nevada (3/4)
  • TeamRankings probability of #1 seed: 17.7%

For #2 seed...

  • Wins vs. Wyoming (2/28) and loses at Nevada (3/4), Boise State loses both of last two games
  • TeamRankings probability of #2 seed: 35.9%

For #3 seed...

  • Wins vs. Wyoming (2/28) and loses at Nevada (3/4), Boise State wins both of last two games
  • Loses vs. Wyoming (2/28) AND at Nevada (3/4), Boise State wins at least one of last two games
  • TeamRankings probability of #3 seed: 46.4%

Boise State

For #1 seed...

  • Wins vs. Fresno State (2/28) AND at Air Force (3/4), Colorado State wins at Nevada (3/4), Nevada also loses vs. San Jose State (3/1)
  • TeamRankings probability of #1 seed: 0.5%

For #2 seed...

  • Wins vs. Fresno State (2/28) AND at Air Force (3/4), either Colorado State or Nevada lose both of its last two games
  • TeamRankings probability of #2 seed: 47.9%

For #3 seed...

  • Wins vs. Fresno State (2/28) AND at Air Force (3/4), Nevada wins one of last two games
  • Wins vs. Fresno State (2/28), Colorado State wins at least one of last two games
  • TeamRankings probability of #3 seed: 41.4%

For #4 seed...

  • Loses both of last two games, Fresno State wins both of last two games
  • TeamRankings probability of #4 seed: 10.2%

Fresno State

For #3 seed...

  • Wins both of last two games, Boise State loses at Air Force (3/4)
  • TeamRankings probability of #3 seed: 10.2%

If the tournament started today, this would be the Mountain West Tournament schedule (all times Pacific):

Wednesday, March 8

8) Utah State vs. 9) San Jose State, 11am
7) Wyoming vs. 10) Air Force, 1:30pm
6) San Diego State vs. 11) UNLV, 4pm

Thursday, March 9

1) Nevada vs. Utah State/San Jose State winner, 12pm
4) Fresno State vs. 5) New Mexico, 2:30pm
2) Colorado State vs. Wyoming/Air Force winner, 6pm
3) Boise State vs. San Diego State/UNLV winner, 8:30pm

Friday, March 10

Nevada/Fresno State vs. New Mexico/Utah State/San Jose State, 7pm
Colorado State/Boise State vs. Wyoming/Air Force/San Diego State/UNLV, 9:30pm

Saturday, March 11

Championship, 3pm PT

As always, there might be an error because these tie-breaking scenarios can get complicated in a hurry. If you see something that’s incorrect, feel free to leave a comment below or fire a tweet to @boettger_eli. I’ll get it fixed as soon as possible.