In a recent article at College Football News, Pete Fiutak has predicted the final ranking of all 128 FBS football teams for the 2016 season. He uses a unique perspective based on what he thinks is going to happen with each team--- without regard as to how good that team is going into the season---and their expected ranking when the end of the regular season is over.
Here are Fiutak’s projections for the Mountain West programs:
115. Hawaii, 4-9. Because it is in Hawaii, there will be at least one win it should not have had otherwise because "some team will be mesmerized by the road trip" and Fiutak offers up UNLV and/or Nevada as the sacrificial lambs. Also, too many challenging road games will prevent the Warriors from getting to a bowl game.
107. Wyoming, 4-8. The Cowboys will start out well with a 3-1 start. But according to Fiutak the conference schedule "will drop like a hammer" and Wyoming will be the underdog in every conference game.
102. San Jose State, 4-8. The Spartans have a tough row to hoe just to get bowl eligible. With road games at Tulsa and Iowa State, and a schedule loaded with tough MW road games, 4-8 is the expectation.
101. Fresno State, 4-8. The Bulldogs will probably end up being a lot better than this, Fiutak notes, but with losses at Nebraska and/or Toledo, they will need a few upsets against some tough Mountain West teams.
97. UNLV, 5-7. The team will be improved this season, but will still come up short even with road wins at Hawaii and San Jose State.
96. New Mexico, 6-6. With a 3-1 start against an easy slate of weak sisters---UL Monroe, Hawaii, Wyoming---the tough road schedule nixes any thoughts of the Mountain division title game.
86. Nevada, 6-6. The Wolf Pack will get by San Diego State, but suffer losses at San Jose State and UNLV.
83. Utah State, 6-6. The Aggies will start out 3-1 including a win over Air Force, before a grueling string of road games in five of their last eight games.
57. Air Force, 9-3. The Falcons will look good at the beginning of the season, but will suffer three big losses to Utah State, Colorado State and Boise State.
56. Colorado State, 8-4. With games at Boise State, at Air Force, at San Diego State, Fiutak says that ends any hope of a Mountain West title.
Suddenly, SDSU and Boise State shoots into the top 25 and leaves the rest of the MW pack behind.
23. San Diego State, 11-1. Following a 9-0 start to the season and a win over Cal, the Aztecs will get back to the Mountain West title game only to lose to Boise State.
4. Boise State, 12-0. Here’s how Fiutak has this all worked out: Boise State will put up huge numbers "against the weak and the sad" and slip by both Washington State and Oregon State. The Broncos will then roll through the Mountain West and knock off SDSU for the conference championship. The FBS selection committee will be faced with the dilemma of an undefeated Boise State team and the only unbeaten FBS conference champion. Backed by a "national conversation" they will be forced to give the Broncos the No. 4 CFP spot.
Makes sense to me and I am so pumped I can see that scenario actually happening. So pass the popcorn and order up a pitcher of beer while I break out the cellphone and start checking out the flight schedules to the playoff bowls.
Whoa, you say?
Just how did Fiutak come up with this amazing fantasy looking into the end of the 2016 college football regular season? In his own words Fiutak states that he "took a walk in 93-degree weather with 635% humidity, got into a state of total clarity and dehydration, and as happens once every offseason, was told by the college football gods exactly how your 2016 college football regular season is going to shake out and what the final CFP rankings will be."
There you have it. Skeptics might be laughing at his methodology and some will say speculation is everything in the college football world. But others will argue that if you really allow yourself to think about it, Fiutak’s prediction is as good as any of the other predictions floating around the internet or coming out the mouths of the sports pundits on the talk shows.
In reality, my own prediction is more scientific and is at least based on a stack of NCAA charts and team stats, online news sources, three reputable sports magazines, several local radio sports talk shows, a bias and skepticism against the Power 5 elite, and a guy who knows a guy who swears he has access to an unnamed insider within the NCAA bowl selection committee. So I also say the Broncos go undefeated, but soundly give Oregon State and Washington State lopsided beatings, then romp through the MW, pound San Diego State into a pulp during the championship game, but only to finish 6th nationally where Boise State will end up having to settle for the access bowl against an Alabama team that finishes 10-2.
Sheesh, what a dreamer Pete Fiutak is.