The Mountain West will either get four teams in the field after Wyoming won the conference tournament on Saturday, or three teams due to the unexpected tournament champion. San Diego State is the other team that is assured of earning an at-large bid from the Mountain West, but Boise State and Colorado State have reasons to be nervous.
Bracket Matrix, which tracks approximately 100 NCAA tournament projection posts, has all four Mountain West teams earning a bid. San Diego State has the highest seed with an average seed of 7.15, Wyoming is a 12 -- but to be fair not every bracket has updated as of late Saturday night -- Boise State is sitting at a 10.81 seed and Colorado State at 9.79.
Colorado State is in 94 of the 100 brackets and Boise State is in 95, so safe to say they are locks. Also, these projections have no Mountain West team playing in the opening round in Dayton, Ohio.
There are three conference tournament finals on Sunday but none of the teams likely to be left will be left out of the tournament, or considered bid thieves. The Dayton Flyers are the closest team to be on the bubble but they play VCU and the outcome likely will not matter either way for them missing out on making the Big Dance.
Teams that Boise State and Colorado State could be jumped by include Georgia, Tulsa, Miami or UCLA. RPI is not the main tool that the selection committee uses but it is a key metric and Colorado State's RPI is 30 while Boise State's is 41. Georgia has an RPI of 36 and could be in the conversation over Colorado State or Boise State, and the Bulldogs did make it to the SEC semifinals.
Colorado State also was missing their best player in J.J. Avila in the loss to San Diego State, and the selection committee does look at injuries to address a teams worthiness to be in the tournament. Avila will be back for the Rams so the committee may not take too much stock in the loss to San Diego State.
As of early Sunday morning, it looks like the Mountain West will get four teams in the NCAA Tournament, and that is one or two more that people were projecting less than a month ago.