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NCAA Bracketology: Can Boise State steal a bid?

San Diego State is a lock and Colorado State is extremely close, but what does Boise State have to do to earn a bid?

Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Let's get this out of the way up front: Wyoming must now win the Mountain West tournament to get to the NCAA tournament after they fell to Fresno State, and at home no less. The Cowboys can be a dangerous team if Larry Nance, Jr. can gain all of his strength back after being sidelined with mono.

The Mountain West is looking at two teams minimum with a third possibly able to get into the Big Dance. San Diego State is the closest thing to a lock and Colorado State is right, assuming they don't loss either of their final two road games.

Boise State is on the outside looking in with a solid 44 RPI but they have just 21 wins and are 5-4 against teams in the top 100 and 2-3 against top 50 teams. That top 100 number could change since UNLV is sitting at 100 and those are two of the wins for Boise State.

The easiest way for Boise State to get on the right side of the bubble is to upset San Diego State on the road this Saturday. A loss won't hurt that much since the Aztecs are currently the 24th team according to the RPI.

Finishing 2-1 down the stretch is the worst Boise State could do to be on the bubble. Once the Mountain West tournament comes around, Boise State would  need to make it to the finals to be in good shape for an at-large bid.

Colorado State seems to be in good shape with an RPI of 26 but they are 5-4 against the top 100 and their strength of schedule is bad at 121.

Over at SB Nation, San Diego State is in good shape as a No. 7 seed and projected to play Texas A&M in Omaha. Colorado State avoids playing in Dayton, Ohio, and is an 11 seed matched up against No. 6 Providence. Boise State is the eighth team out.

Bracket Matrix has San Diego State averaged out as a 7.12 seed, Colorado State is at a 9.22 and Boise State is considered the fifth team out.

Here are the remaining games on the schedule for the Broncos, Aztecs and Rams.

San Diego State (RPI: 24):

Feb. 28: Boise State (44)

March 4: At UNLV (100)

March 7: Nevada (299)

Colorado State (26):

March 4: At Nevada (299)

March 7: At Utah State (147)

Boise State (44):

Feb. 28: At San Diego State (24)

March 4: At San Jose State (333)

March 7: Fresno State (194)