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Mountain West bracketology update: San Diego State appears to be the only lock for the NCAA Tournament

With less than three weeks until Selection Sunday, let's take a look at the fate of the Mountain West Conference.

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As the Mountain West Conference season winds down, the post-season fate of the conference's top dogs is becoming more clear. We'll take a look at a the schools in consideration and see how a few different publications think it'll shake out.

San Diego State

- 7th seed on Joe Lunardi's latest mock bracket on with a possible first-round match up against St. Johns. No. 2 Kansas, 3rd-seeded North Carolina, and no. 11 Cincinnati are all potential second- and third-round foes.

- 7th seed on Jerry Palm's latest predictions facing Illinois. Second-seeded Arizona could be a potential second-round opponent, which would be the two teams' second consecutive tournament meeting

- 8th seed on's latest daily computer simulation with a 91 percent chance of earning a bid, and a 33 percent chance of it being automatic.

SDSU has one last big battle in the Boise State Broncos which comes to town on Saturday. If the Aztecs can hold on and win at UNLV and at home against Nevada, they'll sure up the No. 1 seed for the tournament. A loss would make things tricky, and anything less than an appearance in the tournament championship game might spell doom.


Larry Nance Jr. and the Wyoming Cowboys are on nobody's radar. is currently giving them just a six-percent shot at a bid. A regular season loss in their final four games would be suffocating, and anything less than a tournament championship might not be good enough for a ticket do the dance.

Boise State

- Listed in the "First 4 Out" group in Lunardi's latest predictions.

A win against SDSU, a feat the Broncos accomplished in early February at Taco Bell Arena, would certainly help their cause. Boise has hurdled Wyoming and Colorado State in the bracket conversation in recent weeks, but a bad loss on the road in Fresno may prove to be the loss that keeps them from receiving an at-large bid. gives them a 42 percent chance of being named on Selection Sunday. If the Bronc's beat the 'Tecs and show strongly in the conference tournament, they could could be the second Mountain West team in the big dance.

Colorado State

- Pegged as a 10 seed in Lunardi's latest Bracketology facing the Michigan State Spartans in the opening round.

- 11 seed on the bracket playing Providence University in the first round in Jacksonville.

- 55 percent chance of receiving at-large bid according to, 18 percent chance of winning the conference tournament.

The Rams have an easy close to the regular season with games against San Jose State, at Nevada, and at Utah State. CSU's stock has been up and down all season long and will have to prove itself in the tournament. Their RPI of 26, just one point higher than SDSU, could make them appealing in the eyes of the selection committee, but anything less than a championship-game appearance could render the Mountain West a one-bid league