Mountain West bowl projections: Boise State's path to New Year's Day is clear

And then, there were two.

The regular season was a lot of fun, but in the last few weeks the contenders fell away one by one.  Air Force's loss to San Diego State cost the Falcons a chance at the division crown.  Nevada's loss to Fresno State carried the same cost, as did Colorado State's heartbreaker against the Academy.  The two teams that are left, the Bulldogs and the Broncos, appear to have found themselves just in the nick of time.

Everything broke in Boise State's favor last weekend.  With losses by both the Rams and the Marshall Thundering Herd, there's no more need to jockey for position.  Win on Saturday night, and the Broncos will represent the Group of Five in the New Year's Day bowls.  It's not quite a foregone conclusion, though, as the upstart 'Dogs will surely be eager to pay last year's misery forward and battled Boise to a draw for three quarters back in mid-October.  The question of the week, unsurprisingly, is whether anyone believes in the upset.

For a quick refresher, here is the list of bowls with which the Mountain West is affiliated, along with the potential opponent.  The bowls have an order in which they are allowed to pick teams, and the Las Vegas Bowl picks first.  The Hawaii, New Mexico and New Orleans will share picks three, four and five, while the Potato Bowl picks sixth.  Also note that the conference has secondary ties with the Armed Forces Bowl and Cactus Bowl.

1. Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl - December 20, 2014 - MWC #1 vs. Pac-12 #6
2. San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl - December 23, 2014 - MWC #2 vs. Navy (if eliglble, or at-large)
3. Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - December 24, 2014 - Hawaii (if eligible) or MWC #3-5 vs. C-USA #2-5
4. Gildan New Mexico Bowl - December 20, 2014 - MWC #3-5 vs. C-USA
5. R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - December 20, 2014 - MWC #3-5 vs. Sun Belt #1
6. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - December 20, 2014 - MWC #6 vs. MAC #2

Following the Bruins' flop at home with the Pac-12 South on the line, Rich Rodriguez's squad enters the picture to headline this particular slate.  The only other switch is the Wolf Pack trading Bowling Green for the Rockets, who have had a fine season in the MAC.  You still can't help but wonder, however, whether a potentially 6-7 Bulldogs team is a more viable draw than Utah State or Air Force.

Next up is Jerry Palm of CBS Sports:

One thing worth keeping an eye on is what Fresno's re-entry into the bowl picture will do to the rest of the bowl-eligible bunch. Palm echoes a sentiment we've seen in weeks past that it'll benefit Air Force the most. Two duels in the desert with Power 5 opponents would be the sort of test that Mountain West supporters could get behind.  Would Broncos fans rather face the Wildcats' spread attack, though, or the Badgers' HAM back Melvin Gordon?

Next up, Brant Parsons of the Orlando Sentinel.

You may have started to notice a few trends.  One is that Boise appears to be an overwhelming favorite to win the conference title.  Another, which you may have noticed in following this week after week, is that San Diego State figures to get a home game against the Midshipmen.  A third is that Fresno State picked a fine time to put together a winning streak, though they'll have to hope this hypothetical trip to the islands works out better than the last bowl trip there.

Next, we'll take a look at what ESPN's Brett McMurphy and Mark Schlabach have to say:

McMurphy

Schlabach

The boys from the four-letter network are in agreement with the top four teams, though they appear to be split on who will get the nod for a trip to Tempe.  McMurphy's prognostication is one we've seen before and one that Falcons fans would probably be pleased with, but the Aggies potentially squaring off against the Red Raiders is something new.  Schlabach is the only person forecasting Utah State to the desert, regardless of the opponent.

Next up, Mike Herndon of al.com:

Boise State gets what might be its most vulnerable Fiesta foe in this scenario, while Utah State finally catches a break.  Considering the obstacles the Aggies had to overcome, losing their best players on both offense and defense, I'd argue they deserve to get that potential tenth win against a solid Bulldogs team.  I still don't believe Fresno fans would mind a trip to the Big Easy, either.  It's a sacrifice someone's got to make, after all.

Next up, Bill Bender of the Sporting News:

This looks like a slate in which the Mountain West should clean up.  Each of the Mountain teams get the quality opponent they deserve in bowl season, while the West squads handle the mid-major portion of the schedule.  If the MWC wanted to assert itself as the leader of the Group of 5, this would probably be the ideal scenario for staking that claim.

Alright, next is Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel, who updated his projection ahead of the Tuesday poll release:

It's a clean sweep.  No one appears to be giving the Bulldogs any chance to defeat the Broncos despite their close loss on the blue turf in the not-too-distant past, and with good reason.  Boise State has looked like they could beat just about anyone in the last two weeks and, if they claim the title as they are favored to do, their next opponent is likely to have their hands full.

My own bowl picks reflect this likelihood, as well.  I'd predicted before the season that Fresno would make it back to the title game, albeit against Utah State rather than the Broncos, and the simple fact is they'll need to play a flawless game to have a chance of shocking the college football world.  It's not impossible, though it is improbable.  I'd caution against booking the flight to Glendale just yet, Broncos fans, but I don't think it'd hurt to check out the fares.

If you have your own thoughts on these bowl predictions or have a set of your own, make sure to leave them in the comments!

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