MWC Bowl Projections: Colorado State earns eligibility, waits for its break

The weekend's Mountain West action did only a little to separate the contenders from the pretenders.  On one end, Hawaii's brief run atop the West division (fun while it lasted, I'm sure) came to a halt in San Diego, while Wyoming fell flat at home against San Jose State.  On the other end, Boise State, Air Force and Colorado State all survived tests at home, with the Rams becoming the first MWC team to reach the necessary six wins.

What's become clear is that the conference's strength is concentrated in the Mountain division, but will Boise State be able to take its tiebreaker to the bank at season's end?

For a quick refresher, here is the list of bowls with which the Mountain West is affiliated, along with the potential opponent.  The bowls have an order in which they are allowed to pick teams, and the Las Vegas Bowl picks first.  The Hawaii, New Mexico and New Orleans will share picks three, four and five, while the Potato Bowl picks sixth.  Also note that the conference has secondary ties with the Armed Forces Bowl and Cactus Bowl.

1. Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl - December 20, 2014 - MWC #1 vs. Pac-12 #6
2. San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl - December 23, 2014 - MWC #2 vs. Navy (if eliglble, or at-large)
3. Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - December 24, 2014 - Hawaii (if eligible) or MWC #3-5 vs. C-USA #2-5
4. Gildan New Mexico Bowl - December 20, 2014 - MWC #3-5 vs. C-USA
5. R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - December 20, 2014 - MWC #3-5 vs. Sun Belt #1
6. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - December 20, 2014 - MWC #6 vs. MAC #2

Little has changed from last week, though it is surprising that Kirk is somewhat down on the Nevada Wolf Pack.  After yesterday's come-from-behind victory against a game BYU squad, they are one of just two teams in the West (the other being San Diego State) sitting at 4-3 for now.  Perhaps he feels they did not do themselves any favors with their tough start to conference play -- they beat an SJSU team they probably should've and sit a tier below CSU and Boise with their losses -- but it will be shocking if they're still on the outside looking in after a few more weeks.

Next up is Jerry Palm of CBS Sports:

Palm's projection is more or less the same as it was a week ago, as Air Force is still out of the picture here.  This is a surprise considering the cushiness the Falcons will enjoy in the next two weeks:  The Commander-in-Chief trophy is theirs for the taking next Saturday at Army, and a subsequent trip to Vegas doesn't make for the most daunting two-game road trip. With a win against Boise already in hand, they control their own destiny as long as they keep winning.

Next up, Brant Parsons of the Orlando Sentinel.

The support that Fresno State continues to receive puzzles me.  With only four games left on the schedule, the 3-5 Bulldogs need three wins and... quite frankly, are we certain they can beat anyone at this point?  Wyoming and SJSU have shown a capacity to surprise, Nevada is probably the class of the division and Hawaii is very Hawaii-like, as usual. You can tell me if you see it, but I definitely do not now.

Next, we'll take a look at what ESPN's Brett McMurphy and Mark Schlabach have to say:

McMurphy

Schlabach

I think the one most interesting matchup in these particular slates is Boise State's entry into the Cactus Bowl against a decent Pac-12 team.  I suspect this is mostly built upon the cachet that the Broncos have built up over the years, though I wonder whether McMurphy still believes they can win the Mountain West.  My first inclination says yes, but the Rams benefit from a favorable matchup against Brett Hundley's Bruins in both scenarios.

Last but not least are my own bowl picks, which are essentially an acknowledgment that my preseason prediction is very much on the ropes.  Apologies to Utah State, but though you've shown toughness to hang around despite losing two quarterbacks and your best defensive player, a division title seems to be out of reach.  I also maintain that Air Force/Georgia Southern would be an extremely fun run-run-run-run-some-more game to watch.  Tell me I'm wrong.

If you have your own thoughts on these bowl predictions or have a set of your own, make sure to leave them in the comments!

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