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The Mountain West tournament tips off on Wednesday with the opening round game between the bottom four seeds in Las Vegas at the Thomas and Mack Center.
The odds of those teams playing on Wednesday usually don't have the best chance to win, and that is mostly the case for every tournament. This year UNLV is a seven seed but since they are playing on their home court they are always a threat to make a tournament run.
TeamRankings.com put together their algorithm to give tangible numbers on who will win the Mountain West, and the will do so each round. These numbers place the seven-seeded UNLV as the fourth best odds to win the Mountain West tournament at just under 14 percent.
Boise State is the only team given over 50 percent chance to advance to the title game, and the next spot is hotly contested between San Diego State and Colorado State. What helps is that the Broncos have the easier path to the title game by playing New Mexico or Air Force, and missing the Rebels in their opener. The Lobos are not an easy out but they have been struggling this year and Boise State should be able to move on against either opponent.
Here are the opening predictions from Team Rankings, and they will be updated per round with new numbers.
| Seed | Team | Quarter | Semi | Champ | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Boise State | 100.00% | 75.80% | 56.10% | 28.50% |
| 2.0 | San Diego St | 100.00% | 59.36% | 38.06% | 24.55% |
| 3.0 | Colorado St | 100.00% | 80.77% | 35.28% | 19.95% |
| 7.0 | UNLV | 91.44% | 40.05% | 23.49% | 13.89% |
| 4.5 | Wyoming | 100.00% | 55.25% | 18.58% | 5.46% |
| 4.5 | Utah State | 100.00% | 44.75% | 13.14% | 3.33% |
| 8.0 | New Mexico | 68.82% | 19.58% | 10.53% | 3.20% |
| 6.0 | Fresno St | 100.00% | 19.23% | 3.08% | 0.82% |
| 9.0 | Air Force | 31.18% | 4.62% | 1.65% | 0.28% |
| 10.0 | Nevada | 8.56% | 0.59% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
NOTE: We use the structure below to calculate home advantage:
First Round - home court of UNLV.
Quarterfinals - home court of UNLV.
Semifinals - home court of UNLV.
Championship Game - home court of UNLV.