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The final year of the BCS is here, and that means one more season using a complex formula to determine who plays in the BCS title game, and also to see if a Mountain West, or non-AQ team earns a spot. With the American getting an auto berth this year, and with Louisville in that league, odds are that the Mountain West champion will need to be in the top-12 to get there.
It comes as no surprise that Boise State is the only Mountain West team ranked in the top 25, they come in at No. 22. That puts them clearly in striking distance to make a move. Fresno State gets some consideration at No. 34, Utah State at No. 37 and San Jose State at 43.
Even though Boise State currently does not face any teams in the initial top 25 list below, remember Northern Illinois made a BCS bowl game by starting at No. 46 and faced just one ranked team. That was against Kent State in the MAC title game, plus they also had a loss.
Boise State will just have some work cut for themselves to get to No. 12, but a Mountain West title game hopefully will feature a ranked opponent and help their cause.
Here are the simulated standings, and some explanation of what is used for this formula:
Rank |
2012 | Team | Coaches | Coaches % | AP | AP %% | Md* | JS | KM | RB | Computers % | BCS | Conference | |
1 | 1 | Alabama | 1 | 0.9968 | 1 | 0.9987 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9985 | SEC | |
2 | 2 | Oregon | 3 | 0.9013 | 3 | 0.89 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.96 | 0.9171 | P12 | |
3 | 5 | Georgia | 5 | 0.8065 | 5 | 0.8327 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0.88 | 0.8397 | SEC | |
4 | 7 | Stanford | 4 | 0.8142 | 4 | 0.8627 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 0.79 | 0.8223 | P12 | |
5 | 6 | Texas A&M | 6 | 0.7839 | 7 | 0.736 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0.92 | 0.8133 | SEC | |
6 | 3 | Ohio State | 2 | 0.9206 | 2 | 0.91 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 10 | 0.57 | 0.8002 | B10 | |
7 | 8 | South Carolina | 7 | 0.7329 | 6 | 0.7693 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 0.74 | 0.7474 | SEC | |
8 | 11 | Clemson | 8 | 0.6755 | 8 | 0.722 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 0.57 | 0.6558 | ACC | |
9 | 4 | Notre Dame | 11 | 0.5626 | 14 | 0.4987 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 0.77 | 0.6104 | Ind | |
10 | 14 | LSU | 13 | 0.5142 | 12 | 0.5347 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 0.78 | 0.6096 | SEC | |
11 | 9 | Florida | 10 | 0.6 | 10 | 0.596 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 0.61 | 0.602 | SEC | |
12 | 10 | Florida State | 12 | 0.5445 | 11 | 0.5633 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 0.52 | 0.5426 | ACC | |
13 | 29 | Oklahoma State | 14 | 0.4684 | 13 | 0.5033 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 0.65 | 0.5406 | B12 | |
14 | 13 | Louisville | 9 | 0.6516 | 9 | 0.6947 | 0 | 0.4488 | AA | |||||
15 | 15 | Oklahoma | 16 | 0.4 | 16 | 0.386 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 0.51 | 0.432 | B12 | |
16 | 19 | Texas | 15 | 0.4013 | 15 | 0.4513 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 0.43 | 0.4275 | B12 | |
17 | 24 | Michigan | 17 | 0.38 | 17 | 0.354 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 0.27 | 0.3347 | B10 | |
18 | 25 | Nebraska | 18 | 0.2748 | 18 | 0.2547 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 0.07 | 0.1998 | B10 | |
19 | 33 | TCU | 20 | 0.2581 | 20 | 0.2153 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0.12 | 0.1978 | B12 | ||
20 | 12 | Kansas State | 26 | 0.0729 | 31 | 0.0287 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 16 | 0.48 | 0.1939 | B12 | |
21 | 35 | Wisconsin | 23 | 0.111 | 23 | 0.1233 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 0.34 | 0.1914 | B10 | |
22 | 18 | Boise State | 19 | 0.271 | 19 | 0.2187 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 0.03 | 0.1732 | MWC | ||
23 | 26 | Baylor | 29 | 0.0516 | 27 | 0.0613 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 18 | 0.35 | 0.1543 | B12 | |
24 | 20 | Oregon State | 25 | 0.0871 | 25 | 0.086 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 20 | 0.1444 | P12 | ||
25 | NR | USC | 24 | 0.1065 | 24 | 0.0893 | 21 | 21 | 24 | 21 | 0.17 | 0.1219 | P12 | |
26 | 17 | Northwestern | 22 | 0.12 | 22 | 0.1327 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 0.09 | 0.1142 | B10 | ||
27 | 31 | UCLA | 21 | 0.1303 | 21 | 0.1907 | 0 | 0.107 | P12 | |||||
28 | NR | Miami (Fla.) | 27 | 0.0652 | 29 | 0.0567 | 0 | 0.0406 | ACC | |||||
29 | NR | Michigan State | 28 | 0.0574 | 26 | 0.0633 | 0 | 0.0403 | B10 | |||||
30 | NR | Virginia Tech | 30 | 0.0419 | 28 | 0.0573 | 0 | 0.0331 | ACC | |||||
31 | 23 | Vanderbilt | 34 | 0.0187 | 33 | 0.0127 | 21 | 0.05 | 0.0271 | SEC | ||||
32 | NR | Arizona State | 32 | 0.0329 | 30 | 0.0353 | 0 | 0.0227 | P12 | |||||
33 | NR | Ole Miss | 33 | 0.0206 | 36 | 0.0073 | 22 | 0.04 | 0.0227 | SEC | ||||
34 | NR | Fresno State | 31 | 0.04 | 32 | 0.024 | 0 | 0.0213 | MWC | |||||
35 | NR | BYU | 36 | 0.0129 | 43 | 0.0007 | 23 | 0.03 | 0.0145 | Ind | ||||
36 | 22 | Northern Illinois | 37 | 0.0123 | 35 | 0.0107 | 0 | 0.0076 | MAC | |||||
37 | 16 | Utah State | 35 | 0.0148 | 37 | 0.0053 | 0 | 0.0067 | MWC | |||||
38 | NR | North Carolina | 37 | 0.0123 | 39 | 0.002 | 0 | 0.0048 | ACC | |||||
39 | NR | Washington | 43 | 0.0019 | 34 | 0.0113 | 0 | 0.0044 | P12 | |||||
40 | 30 | Tulsa | 39 | 0.0058 | 0 | 0 | 0.0019 | CUSA | ||||||
41 | NR | Arizona | 42 | 0.0032 | 39 | 0.002 | 0 | 0.0017 | P12 | |||||
42 | NR | Ohio | 40 | 0.0052 | 0 | 0 | 0.0017 | MAC | ||||||
43 | 21 | San Jose State | 40 | 0.0052 | 0 | 0 | 0.0017 | MWC | ||||||
44 | NR | Georgia Tech | 0 | 38 | 0.004 | 0 | 0.0013 | ACC | ||||||
45 | 28 | Cincinnati | 43 | 0.0019 | 39 | 0.002 | 0 | 0.0013 | AA | |||||
46 | NR | East Carolina | 43 | 0.0019 | 0 | 0 | 0.0006 | CUSA | ||||||
46 | NR | Kent State | 43 | 0.0019 | 0 | 0 | 0.0006 | MAC | ||||||
46 | NR | Mississippi State | 43 | 0.0019 | 0 | 0 | 0.0006 | SEC | ||||||
49 | 27 | Penn State* | 0 | 42 | 0.0013 | 0 | 0.0004 | B10 | ||||||
50 | 33 | Central Florida | 48 | 0.0013 | 0 | 0 | 0.0004 | AA | ||||||
51 | 32 | Arkansas State | 49 | 0.0006 | 0 | 0 | 0.0002 | Sun | ||||||
51 | NR | Arkansas | 49 | 0.0006 | 0 | 0 | 0.0002 | SEC | ||||||
51 | NR | Rutgers | 49 | 0.0006 | 0 | 0 | 0.0002 | AA | ||||||
51 | NR | Tennessee | 49 | 0.0006 | 0 | 0 | 0.0002 | SEC | ||||||
51 | NR | Toledo | 49 | 0.0006 | 0 | 0 | 0.0002 | MAC |
Keys: 2012 = Final 2012 Associated Press poll; Md = Median ranking of 24 computer ratings; JS = Jeff Sagarin; KM = Kenneth Massey MOV; RB = Richard Billingsley.
Explanation: This rankings method is a simulation of the actual BCS standings with the following variations: 1) The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Interactive Poll, which is not published until after the first weekend of October; 2) Three of the six BCS computer ratings are available -- Jeff Sagarin, Kenneth Massey and Richard Billingsley; 3) The other three computer ratings -- Anderson & Hester, Colley Matrix and Peter Wolfe -- will not be available until mid-September or October, so they're replaced by the median ranking of 24 computer ratings.