At every football media day the preseason media poll comes out and it is used as a guide to see what teams will be good, and who will win the league. In the Mountain West's 2013 poll the media selected Boise State as the winner of the Mountain Division and Fresno State the West Division winner, and overall Boise State edged Fresno State to be named the preseason champions.
However, being named the league champion has not always come to fruition in the Mountain West. The media have predicted the correct conference champion just six out of 14 times, and two of those times there were co-champions.
So for Boise State and Fresno State, now that there are divisions, the odds are not in their favor to win their respective division since according to history have less than a 50 percent to follow through with the media's prediction.
If not Boise State or Fresno State, then who? The media made two egregious errors back in 2000 and 2005 where they picked Utah to win the league, but the winner was actually Colorado State and then TCU, while Utah finished fifth that year. 2007 had the same result with TCU which finished fifth while BYU won the league.
The logical choice in the Mountain Division is Utah State, and if we want a dark horse than perhaps Wyoming. In the West Division it could easily be San Jose State or San Diego State, and a reach would be Nevada getting that defense together and make a surprise run.
Basically, even though Boise State and Fresno State are projected to win their divisions, the odds are against them and we could see at least one of these two not finish atop the division when the season ends.