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BCS Bowl Projections 2011: Scenarios To How Boise State, TCU Can Make A BCS Bowl Game

As promised here is how the Boise St. Broncos and TCU Horned Frogs can make a BCS bowl game. We will first start with TCU since their path to a bowl game is easier to explain than Boise State's. TCU needs the Houston Cougars to lose and move into the No. 16 spot. Last week TCU actually fell a spot to No. 20 after a win, but the difference between TCU and No. 16 is only .0912. Also, teams ranked right around TCU play each other this week, so TCU could jump up even without playing this weekend.

Here are the games that could make a difference in TCU's ranking:

No. 8 Houston Cougars at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 24 Auburn Tigers

No. 22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 6 Stanford Cardinal

No. 17 Clemson Tigers at No. 12 South Carolina Gamecocks

No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 23 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Ohio St. Buckeyes at No. 15 Michigan Wolverines

No. 19 Penn St. Nittany Lions at No. 16 Wisconsin Badgers

Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 18 Baylor Bears

As you can see there are a lot of games that can affect TCU this weekend. Also, since TCU does not play there is no chance for them to slip up, but there will be some shake up this week. All TCU needs to do is to get to No. 16 and have Houston not win C-USA.

As for Boise State their BCS chances are a bit more difficult as they would have to be selected from the at-large pool. Before we begin I will list the current BCS top-14 teams as they are the one's who are eligible in the at-large pool.

1. LSU - BCS title game
2. Alabama -BCS title game
3. Arkansas - not eligible
4. Oklahoma State - Big 12 champion
5. Virginia Tech - ACC champion
6. Stanford - at-large consideration
7. Boise State - at-large consideration
8. Houston - Non-AQ automatic berth
9. Oklahoma - at-large consideration
10. Oregon - Pac-12 champion
11. Kansas State - not eligible
12. South Carolina - not eligible
13. Georgia - not-eligible
14. Michigan State - Big 10 champion

There are only two-at large berths for Boise State, Oklahoma and Stanford to fight over, as of now. Michigan could get into the picture if they win since they are No. 15 in the BCS standings.

With the current BCS standings here are the likely bowl matchups, and yes your eyes do not deceive you as 6-4 Louisville is in the Big East lead.

BCS Title: LSU vs. Alabama
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Louisville
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Michigan State
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Houston
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford

A few things that would help Boise State would be for Stanford and Michigan to both lose and for the winner of the Penn State vs. Wisconsin game to lose in the Big 10 title game. Also, have Houston lose in the C-USA title game, but still be in the top 14 and have TCU move into the top 14. The latter would have three non-AQ's in the top 14 spots and with TCU getting the auto bid and there is no way Houston would be selected over Boise State.

There is still the matter of the Big 10 somehow getting a second team at No. 14, but I don't see how that is possible if unless Wisconsin beats Penn State and moves into the top 14 and barely loses to Michigan State in the title game to stay at No. 14. That may happen if Georgia beats South Carolina to knock them out of the top 14 and then Georgia goes on to loss to the SEC West champ. That would drop Georgia out of the top 14 and might create room for Wisconsin.

A lot of what-ifs in the Boise State scenario, but it could end up being like 2009 when Boise State was selected as an at-large due to there not being any other teams eligible to be taken.

So there you have it as for how these two teams can make it. Once we know who is playing in championship games next weekend it will be easier to see if Boise State or TCU have a shot at a BCS game.

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