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Boise State Has A 10 Percent Chance To Play In BCS Title Game

Last week was the first in which I looked at Football Outsiders and College Football by the Numbers who both predict who the undefeated teams would finish out the season. First up is CFBTN's list of teams who will make the national title as well as winning the national title. 

Here is the latest list by CFBTN:

Team Ave. Record Play Champs Opponent
Alabama 12.9 - 0.1 43.2% 22.4% Oklahoma
LSU 12.7 - 0.3 38.9% 20.6% Oklahoma
Oklahoma 11.8 - 0.2 34.9% 17.1% Alabama
Stanford 13.0 - 0.0 27.0% 15.6% Alabama
Wisconsin 12.9 - 0.1 28.6% 11.7% Alabama
Boise St. 12.0 - 0.0 10.1% 6.5% Alabama
Oklahoma St. 12.0 - 0.0 14.8% 5.1% Alabama
Oregon 12.0 - 1.0 2.2% 1.1% LSU

Lat week Boise State was at 13.4 percent to play for the national title and 8.1 percent chance to win the title. My assumption for the decrease is that teams ranked ahead of Boise State won, and the teams below them who could jump them also won. 

Here is how CFBTN predicts the win total and percentage of wins a team will get by years end.

The remaining road for undefeated teams

The remaining undefeated teams based on odds of finishing with zero losses according to Football Outsiders.

Team
BCS Rk
SOS to Date
SOS Remain
0 Loss 1 Loss 2+ Loss
Boise State
5
67
99
76.8% 21.2% 2.0%
Houston
19
109
105
54.3% 37.5% 8.2%
LSU
1
14
27
43.1% 46.0% 10.9%
Stanford
8
119
51
29.7% 42.0% 28.3%
Clemson
7
64
46
29.2% 44.4% 26.4%
Alabama
2
69
24
27.1% 49.0% 23.9%
Wisconsin
6
113
18
22.1% 42.2% 35.7%
Oklahoma State
4
46
40
21.2% 41.4% 37.4%
Oklahoma
3
96
3
15.1% 37.2% 47.7%
Kansas State
11
76
4
1.9% 14.3% 83.8%

 

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