Last week was the first in which I looked at Football Outsiders and College Football by the Numbers who both predict who the undefeated teams would finish out the season. First up is CFBTN's list of teams who will make the national title as well as winning the national title.
Here is the latest list by CFBTN:
Team
Ave. Record
Play
Champs
Opponent
Alabama
12.9
-
0.1
43.2%
22.4%
Oklahoma
LSU
12.7
-
0.3
38.9%
20.6%
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
11.8
-
0.2
34.9%
17.1%
Alabama
Stanford
13.0
-
0.0
27.0%
15.6%
Alabama
Wisconsin
12.9
-
0.1
28.6%
11.7%
Alabama
Boise St.
12.0
-
0.0
10.1%
6.5%
Alabama
Oklahoma St.
12.0
-
0.0
14.8%
5.1%
Alabama
Oregon
12.0
-
1.0
2.2%
1.1%
LSU
Lat week Boise State was at 13.4 percent to play for the national title and 8.1 percent chance to win the title. My assumption for the decrease is that teams ranked ahead of Boise State won, and the teams below them who could jump them also won.
Here is how CFBTN predicts the win total and percentage of wins a team will get by years end.
The remaining road for undefeated teams
The remaining undefeated teams based on odds of finishing with zero losses according to Football Outsiders.
|
Team
|
BCS Rk
|
SOS to Date
|
SOS Remain
|
0 Loss | 1 Loss | 2+ Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boise State
|
5
|
67
|
99
|
76.8% | 21.2% | 2.0% |
|
Houston
|
19
|
109
|
105
|
54.3% | 37.5% | 8.2% |
|
LSU
|
1
|
14
|
27
|
43.1% | 46.0% | 10.9% |
|
Stanford
|
8
|
119
|
51
|
29.7% | 42.0% | 28.3% |
|
Clemson
|
7
|
64
|
46
|
29.2% | 44.4% | 26.4% |
|
Alabama
|
2
|
69
|
24
|
27.1% | 49.0% | 23.9% |
|
Wisconsin
|
6
|
113
|
18
|
22.1% | 42.2% | 35.7% |
|
Oklahoma State
|
4
|
46
|
40
|
21.2% | 41.4% | 37.4% |
|
Oklahoma
|
3
|
96
|
3
|
15.1% | 37.2% | 47.7% |
|
Kansas State
|
11
|
76
|
4
|
1.9% | 14.3% | 83.8% |
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