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Predicting The Rest Of The Remaining Mountain West Season Using Numbers

With the season about halfway done the teams have identified themselves who they are and expectations are fairly set. However, we do not know for sure how teams will finish, but there are a few websites that do their best to predict outcomes. Two good websites are Football Outsiders and College Football by the Numbers.

The first spread sheet will be from CFBTN and it predicts what a teams record will be, conference title chances, bowl eligibility, undefeated chances and the percentage of how many games a team will win. I wish I found CFBTN earlier then I did, because it would have been fun to track this all season. Also, the numbers are not fully accurate since San Diego State defeated Air Force, so take that into consideration. Also, the numbers at the end going from 12 down to zero is the percentage a team gets that amount of wins.


Also from CFBTN here is their current projection of the BCS title game:


Team Ave. Record Play Champs Opponent
Wisconsin 12.9 - 0.1 38.7% 20.1% Alabama
Alabama 12.9 - 0.1 42.5% 20.0% Wisconsin
Stanford 13.0 - 0.0 28.2% 17.1% Alabama
LSU 12.6 - 0.4 31.1% 14.2% Wisconsin
Oklahoma 11.8 - 0.2 28.7% 14.2% Alabama
Boise St. 12.0 - 0.0 13.4% 8.1% Alabama
Oklahoma St. 11.9 - 0.1 10.8% 3.8% Alabama
Oregon 12.0 - 1.0 3.4% 1.9% Alabama
Michigan 13.0 - 0.0 2.8% 0.6% Alabama
Clemson 12.9 - 0.1 0.3% 0.1% Alabama


Now onto Football Outsiders -- via SB Nation's Bill Connelly -- who is projecting what teams will finish the season undefeated by projecting what teams final regular season record would be if they played their schedule 100 times:

  • SEC
    LSU: 5.0 Remaining Mean Wins in six games.
    Alabama: 4.4 Remaining Mean Wins in five games. (Note: the Tide actually have six games remaining, but one comes versus Georgia Southern, and Fremeau's numbers ignore games versus FCS competition).
  • Big 12
    Oklahoma: 6.2 Remaining Mean Wins in seven games.
    Oklahoma State: 5.7 Remaining Mean Wins in seven games.
    Kansas State: 3.6 Remaining Mean Wins in seven games.
  • Big Ten
    Wisconsin: 6.2 Remaining Mean Wins in seven games.
    Michigan: 5.1 Remaining Mean Wins in six games.
    Illinois: 3.3 Remaining Mean Wins in six games.
  • ACC
    Georgia Tech: 5.0 Remaining Mean Wins in six games.
    Clemson: 4.6 Remaining Mean Wins in six games.
  • Pac-12
    Stanford: 6.2 Remaining Mean Wins in seven games.
  • Because They're Basically BCS At This Point
    Boise State: 6.8 Remaining Mean Wins in seven games.

The Football Outisders link has a lot more information and predicts all the FBS teams.

Not much more to add except remember that the CFBTN numbers do not include last night's San Diego State's win over Air Force, and it is probably safe to assume San Diego State's bowl chances should be 100% now since they were at 99% before winning over a solid Air Force team.

Enjoy the numbers and look for something similar each Wednesday about this. Wednesday because it will be before any of the Thursday night games finish.

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