SB Nation Bubble Watch is posted by Chris Dobbertean of Blogging the Bracket every Friday over on the main pages of SB Nation. Here is today's full post if you want to read the whole thing with analysis on teams from every conference. If you don't want to, I'll just give you then information and some analysis on the MWC teams here.
As expected, BYU gets a considerable push, up from the last 3 seed to the second 2 seed. More surprising though, is SDSU also becoming a 2 seed.
The top four remain the same, but there are now a pair of Mountain West teams on the second line. You likely expected BYU to be there after their Wednesday night win over San Diego St, but the Aztecs jump up thanks to a pair of bad losses in the Big East. Syracuse slips down to the three line after they lost for the third straight time, while Villanova also drops, thanks to a defeat at Providence (in the same building where St. Mary's ended their 2009-10 season in the Second Round of the NCAAs).
Other than the two monsters of the Mountain West, both UNLV and Colorado State are in the discussion as well. UNLV is currently the first 8 seed and Dobbertean sees them as a possible lock come next week's Bubble Watch.
Colorado State is mentioned as a possible team to make the tourney, but they dropped a few spots from the very first team out, to the fifth team out. That was a result of their loss to BYU at home in front of their first sell-out crowd since 2003. CSU still has a very good chance of making the NCAA Tournament. What they are going to have to do is beat everyone below them (i.e. Air Force, TCU, Utah, Wyoming) in order to make sure their RPI doesn't drop too far, plus that would mean a decent push in their RPI with Utah and Air Force both having RPI's that are 150 or less. As well as beating the bottom feeders, they are probably going to have to split the second round of games against UNLV and New Mexico if they want any chance of making it in.
Of this group, UNLV seems best placed to rise up to lock status at the moment.
As far as UNLV goes, they only have one game against Utah before next weeks bubble watch. As long as they take care of business, they should move into lock status according to Dobbertean. Although after that, UNLV has a tough schedule. At BYU and TCU, and then San Diego State and Air Force at home. After that, they have to travel to Fort Collins and Albequerque, so the schedule doesn't get any easier for a Rebel team desperate for wins.
BYU and San Diego State both have realistic shots at making it to a one seed, although BYU probably has the better chance at this point. Both teams still square off one more time in San Diego, so the Aztecs can easily make up for their loss in Provo and get closer to a 1 seed. BYU has UNLV at home, CSU at home and both of their games against New Mexico as well as the road game at Montezuma Mesa. If the Cougars at least play well through all of those games, BYU will be in a great position for a 1 seed as well.
When it comes to New Mexico's chances, they are out of the race for an at-large bid. The only way they go to the NCAA Tournament is if they win the MWC Tournament, which is still a possibility if the Lobos can get their team chemistry together in time.
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