The much anticipated formula was finally released today, but hold your joys Mountain West fans the league is in good shape but not currently in line for AQ status, but they are close. Of course it is the bottom of the league with New Mexico, San Diego State, and Colorado State dropping the league in the overall computer rankings. Looking at some formulas prior to today/s release it looked like the Mountain West was good to go if they kept up their current pace, but it looks to be on the shoulders of the bottom teams to pick up the pace.
So here are the rules for qualification, so I am warning you that an advil might be a good choice to take prior to reading:
The AQ evaluation includes the following for each conference: 1. the ranking of the top team in the final BCS Standings each year (if a conference does not place a team in the final BCS Standings, then its highest-ranked team is determined by the conference member that has the highest average ranking in the computer rankings used in the BCS Standings)
2) the final regular-season rankings of all conference teams in the computer rankings used by the BCS each year, and
3) the number of teams in the top 25 of the final BCS Standings each year, with adjustments to account for differences in the number of members of each conference.
A conference will become the seventh automatic qualifier if it finishes among the top six conferences in both No. 1 and No. 2 and if its ranking in No. 3 is equal to or greater than 50 percent of the conference with the highest ranking in No. 3.
Further, a conference will be eligible to apply to the Presidential Oversight Committee for an exemption if it finishes among the top six in both No. 1 and No. 2 and if its ranking in No. 3 is equal to or greater than 33.3 percent of the conference with the highest ranking in No. 3,
OR
If it finishes among the top seven in either No. 1 or No. 2 and among the top five in the other and if its ranking in No. 3 is equal to or greater than 33.3 percent of the conference with the highest ranking in No. 3.
No. 3 above, the "Top 25 Performance Rating," will be calculated as follows: Points will be awarded to the conferences based on their teams' finishes in the top 25 of the final BCS Standings each year. Points will be awarded as follows:
Teams finishing 1-6: 4 points for each team
Teams finishing 7-12: 3 points for each team
Teams finishing 13-18: 2 points for each team
Teams finishing 19-25: 1 point for each team
The point totals will be adjusted to account for the size of the conference, as follows:
Conference membership Adjustment
12 or more members: no adjustment
10 or 11 points: points increased by 12.5 percent
9 or fewer members: points increased by 25 percent
* The computations will be made according to the conference's membership on Dec. 4, 2011.
This clause is very important for the Mountain West to consider:
Further, a conference will be eligible to apply to the Presidential Oversight Committee for an exemption if it finishes among the top six in both No. 1 and No. 2 and if its ranking in No. 3 is equal to or greater than 33.3 percent of the conference with the highest ranking in No. 3,
Here is a chart of how the league stands up in terms in two of the three categories:
Category (2)
Utah finished 6th in the final 2008 BCS poll and TCU finished 4th in the final 2009 BCS poll (the final BCS poll is released before bowl games). As of today, the MWC is third in category (2) (behind the Big 12 and SEC).
Category (3)
Here’s how category (3) looks as of today:
Top 25 Team Rankings (Weighted) MWC Big East Big 12 SEC ACC Big 10 Pac 10 2009 8.75 10 6 11 8 10.125 9 2008 11.25 5 14 11 4 10.125 6.75 Total 20 15 20 22 12 20.25 15.75
As you can see, the MWC easily has an aggregate score in category (3) above 50% of the score of the highest ranked conference (the SEC). In fact, the MWC’s score is high enough to rank it in a tie for third (with the Big 12).
The problem again is the bottom of the league which has multiple teams ranked 100 or below in the computer average. Those numbers were not an easy find, but some research will be done to bring forward a full comparison between all the leagues to see where the Mountain West stands out.
One very interesting note is that even with the addition of Boise State may not help:
The bad news for the MWC is that even if they kick out New Mexico and/or San Diego State and add Boise State, the conference still would not surpass the Big East in the overall ranking category (and thus would likely not finish in the top 6 of BCS conferences as required). This isn’t to say the MWC shouldn’t consider adding Boise State, but rather that adding BSU doesn’t guarantee the MWC of anything.
While adding Boise is a good move it may not even matter, because by kicking out a team in the 100 plus rankings does not help, adding Boise to give the league ten members would still not help. The waiver looks to be the way since the league is clearly in the 50% range of final rankings and with the highest rated team.