It seems as though it isn't that far off, but there are always hoops to jump through in order to get there... This year presents to be the most opportunistic for a Non-BCS team to break through to the national championship because of where some Non-BCS teams are ranked. Boise St. is expected to be ranked somewhere between 3 an 8 and TCU is expected to be ranked somewhere between 6 and 11. Now, the reason these rankings have so much of an impact on whether or not these teams make it to the National Championship is because the BCS has set up their whole postseason scenarios leading to #1 BCS ranked team plays #2 BCS ranked team.
Non-BCS Teams have started to show that they can play against teams from the Big 10, SEC and Big 12 and beat them. BCS Voters have noticed that and have finally ranked some Non-BCS teams in the top 10 for the first time, although it wasn't always like this, a few years back, no Non-BCS teams would even be ranked and at that point, even if they were to go undefeated, there was a very slight chance that they would make it to a BCS bowl. But things have changed for the definite better and now those teams have a much better shot at the National Championship.
If Boise St. starts as a top 5 team, it is completely realistic for them to get to the National Championship. They would still have to go undefeated, although it is much easier for a team like Boise St. to go undefeated because they play in the WAC. That said, anything can happen and the Broncos could drop one to Louisiana Tech... TCU also has a chance although they do play a tougher schedule and will start ranked a little bit farther back than Boise St. TCU could also do it if they go undefeated because of how high they are ranked, but with their schedule being much tougher than Boise St., Boise St. has a better chance of doing it. All that information is based on just chances, if Boise St. gets ripped by injuries or if TCU loses a nailbiter to Utah, then for these teams all hope is lost for a national championship.
Here is Mark Sanchez's take on the idea of losing one game and not having a shot at the national title after making the playoffs as a Jets QB:
"It seems to me that the NFL has offered more than college," Sanchez said, "You know you lose one game at USC and you're out, you know you can't do anything to change that anymore. Where with the NFL we lost 7 times this year and still made the playoffs and still have a shot at the championship."
That pretty much sums up what the BCS needs to change but the point is that teams like TCU and Boise St. should still have a chance at the national championship even if they lose a game.
I personally think the Broncos will break the barrier this year and Utah will beat TCU to knock them down. Of course I could be wrong and we could be talking about TCU winning or have this same conversation this time next year. Official Prediction: Boise St. goes to the national