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BCS Chaos Watch 2010: Who does TCU need to win this week?

With Boise currently drafting behind TCU and ready to slingshot past at any moment it's time to start looking ahead to what game outcomes could help TCU in their quest for a second straight BCS appearance.  At this point it is a numbers game: there are 10 total spots with 6 going to the champions of the big 6 conferences.  One spot will go to the highest ranked non-AQ, presumably Boise, which leaves 3 at-large spots available.  At least two of these at-large spots will most likely go to one-loss teams from either the Big 10, SEC, or Pac 10.  The trick for TCU will be holding out hope that all 3 of these conferences aren't in a position to send 2 teams a piece.

1.)  Fresno State Bulldogs @ #4 Boise State Broncos
This Friday night game is a longshot for the Bulldogs, but if they could pull off the upset on the blue then the other games don't matter, and the Frogs are guaranteed a place at the table. 

2.)  #9 Ohio State Buckeyes @ #20 Iowa Hawkeyes
The Big 10 currently has 3 one-loss teams and any one of them would make them very attractive at-large picks for the Sugar or Orange, if two of them can lose another game then the door opens significantly for the Frogs.

3.)  #6 Stanford Cardinal @ Cal Bears
Stanford could pose a real threat to the Frogs if Auburn were to lose and Boise got the invite to play Oregon in the title game.  In this scenario the Rose Bowl could have their precious Big 10 vs. Pac 10 matchup by pairing a one-loss Stanford against the Big 10 champ, and having 2 Pac 10 teams in the BCS mix hurts the Frogs odds drastically. 
4.)  #7 Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan Wolverines 
See #2. 

5.)  #13 Arkansas Razorbacks @ #21 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Arkansas already has two losses but they are eligible for a BCS spot since they are in the top 14 and we've already learned that the SEC doesn't play by the same rules as everyone else, so root for MSU for good measure. 

6.)  #8 Nebraska Huskers @ #19 Texas A&M Aggies
The Huskers are ranked highly enough that a loss in the Big 12 championship game might not be enough to knock them out of the at-large picture, a loss here would be though.

7.)  #14 Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears
OU poses very little threat for a at-large BCS berth but a Baylor upset would help TCU's SOS.

8.)  #16 Virginia Tech Hokies @ #24 Miami Hurricanes
It would probably be "too little, too late" but a VT loss dings Boise's SOS, and every little thing helps at this point.