BCS Standings Has Oregon Number One And BCS Bowl Projections

I could write a diatribe about how bad Craig James is when trying to defend the teams from the Big Six. I am glad Chris Fowler shut him down tonight, and how can he not have Utah in his top 10? In case you missed it here is his top ten:

That makes a lot of sense?

Here is a couple of videos from the BCS show tonight:

Now onto the rankings, for the complete computer breakdowns check here:

Rank	Team	Harris Poll	Coaches Poll	Computer Average	BCS Average	Measurement Error	Top 25 Remaining
1	Oregon Ducks	0.9905	0.9925	0.9500	0.9777		1
2	Auburn Tigers	0.9414	0.9383	1.000	0.9599		2
3	TCU Horned Frogs	0.8874	0.8759	0.9100	0.8911		1
4	Boise St. Broncos	0.9246	0.9227	0.8000	0.8824		1
5	Utah Utes	0.7618	0.7736	0.6600	0.7318		1
6	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.8232	0.8224	0.5100	0.7185		4
7	Nebraska Cornhuskers	0.6291	0.6515	0.7800	0.6869		1
8	Oklahoma Sooners	0.6635	0.6712	0.7200	0.6849		3
9	Wisconsin Badgers	0.7161	0.7458	0.5600	0.6740		0
10	LSU Tigers	0.5982	0.5837	0.7800	0.6540		3
11	Ohio St. Buckeyes	0.6968	0.7112	0.4300	0.6127		1
12	Missouri Tigers	0.4537	0.4583	0.8700	0.5940		1
13	Stanford Cardinal	0.6305	0.5736	0.5300	0.5780		1
14	Michigan St. Spartans	0.4488	0.4420	0.6500	0.5136
15	Arizona Wildcats	0.4835	0.4773	0.5200	0.4936
16	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.4586	0.4386	0.3900	0.4291
17	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	0.3246	0.3159	0.5200	0.3868
18	Arkansas Razorbacks	0.3407	0.3024	0.2400	0.2944
19	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.3168	0.3505	0.1500	0.2725
20	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	0.2014	0.2169	0.3100	0.2428
21	Baylor Bears	0.1481	0.1695	0.2200	0.1792
22	Virginia Tech Hokies	0.2214	0.2569	0.0000	0.1595
23	Nevada Wolf Pack	0.1011	0.0759	0.1100	0.0957
24	Florida St. Seminoles	0.0884	0.0725	0.0600	0.0737
25	N.C. State Wolfpack	0.0488	0.0651	0.0500	0.0546

There are some pretty big gaps at the top of the standings. Especially between two and three and then again between the four and the five spot. Utah is so low in the computer rankings that if they are able to beat TCU they could jump up to number three and get very close to Auburn.

While all the talk is at the top of the standings of who gets into the title game, or if a non-BCS league gets in a second team in, but the real issue is that the Big East could get a BCS bid by being unranked. That is right Pitt is leading the Big East with a 5-3 and is only in the receiving votes categories. Syracuse is 6-2 and is just outside of the rankings, plus they lost badly to Pitt.

The ACC should have a ranked champion, but getting into the top 16 might be a stretch. Then there is the loser of the Utah/TCU game will be regulated to the Las Vegas Bowl and according to ESPN bowl projections has Utah playing either Texas A&M or Cal. Utah could be in the top 10 by playing maybe a 7-5 or 6-6 team. That is a real shame.

Here are my projections of the BCS bowl games, and here is the selection process:

A. A team in the NCG;
B. The host team for another BCS Bowl;
C. When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents.

4. After steps No. 1, 2 and 3 have been completed, any bowl with an unfilled slot shall select a team from the automatic qualifiers and/or at-large teams in the following order for the games played in 2007 through 2010:

January 2011 games: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta

BCS title game:

Rose Bowl:

Sugar Bowl:

Orange Bowl:

OR

Fiesta Bowl:

The Rose Bowl would really want Utah since they would be a Pac-12 member the following year. The margin between Boise State and Utah will be very close if both win out. I am basing my difference on that the human polls will not put Utah ahead of Boise State.

I could see Boise Sate (and to a lesser extent Utah) getting into the title game, but it will be very, very close between them and Alabama. The Crimson Tide currently have three top 25 teams left on the schedule and the SEC title game, and that most likely would put them over the top.

Also, take your shots at me picking Utah to be in a BCS bowl. TCU has never beaten Utah at home, so I am using that as my tiebreaker for these projections.

Now, if TCU wins I think they will be ahead of Boise and go to the Rose Bowl which would then make the Orange Bowl most likely Pitt vs. Virginia Tech (this would avoid a Boise State vs. Va. Tech rematch) and and Oklahoma vs. Boise State Fiesta Bowl.

Plus, look for a later post on the bizarro BCS bowls that could happen. Here is a hint: Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl is still a real possibility.