There is one more last ditch effort for BCS chaos which is having Nebraska beating Texas in the Big XII title game this weekend. While Texas is a huge favorite this matchup is eerily similar to the 1996 Big XII title game where Nebraska was a huge favorite but ended up losing to Texas with the infamous fourth and inches play sealed the game where Texas QB James "I feel good!" Brown (had to do it) rolled left to find his tight end streaking down the field.
The real question is what happens if Texas does lose this game who goes to the title game TCU or Cincinnati (assuming they take care of Pitt). Below is the difference between TCU and Cincinnati and the two are separated only by .0142 in the BCS standings.
|
Team |
Rk | Coach | % Rk |
Harris | % | AH | CM | JS | KM | PW | RB | Cp Avg | BCS | Conf |
|
TCU |
4 |
1285 | 0.8712 | 4 | 2473 | 0.8754 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 0.860 | 0.8689 | MWC | ||
| Cincinnati | 5 | 1231 | 0.8346 | 5 | 2343 | 0.8294 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 0.900 | 0.8547 | East |
Currently Cincinnati is third in computers and is only behind Alabama and Florida, so by default the Bearcats will move up to number two in the computers rankings. While TCU is sitting at fifth in the computer scores behind the three above plusTexas, and with no games left to play to improve their status.
It is possible that there could be another 2003 USC scenario -- with TCU -- where they were number two in both polls, but left out of the BCS title game because of the computer love going toward LSU. That scenario is possible unless the voters really want to keep out a non-BCS school from getting to the title game in favor of a BCS league member. However, since that BCS member is Cincy the voters may not feel obliged to put them in the number two spot.
TCU does has a common opponent in Clemson who is playing in the ACC title game and a win by the Tigers should help their computer rankings, however a Clemson loss will drop the TCU ranking down a notch but how much is the question. To be safe -- or as close to safe as one can be -- a Clemson win might be enough to at least keep TCU's computer numbers on par with Cincinatti's increase after they beat Pitt.
It will all come down to the human voters and which team -- TCU or Cincinatti-- gets the votes that were previously occupied from the SEC loser. Now, if Nebraska wins below is how I think the BCS bowls will shake out and as a reminder here is the selection order Orange, Fiesta, Sugar
BCS Title Game: Flordia vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs.Penn State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Cincinatti
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
The Nebraska win would leave Boise State on the outisde looking in, again. Looking at this set of matchups the BCS actually would be happy because each game has a traditional power. While the title game would have the intrigue of Tim Tebow going for another national title against the first non-BCS team to play in the BCS title with the chance to become the second current non-BCS team to win a national title since BYU in 1984. Now, If Cincinatti takes the number two spot the only difference would be swapping with TCU in the Sugar Bowl.