The 'experts' at the World Wide Leader trotted out their week nine bowl projections which both have TCU and Boise State in a BCS game, and then there is Mark Schlabach who has Boise and TCU matching up in the Fiesta Bowl.
Assuming the SEC champ and Texas are in the title game then the Sugar and Fiesta bowl get to pick from their conference to replace their lost team; albeit their be a second team that qualifies from their league. The Sugar Bowl will most likely snag the loser of the SEC title game, while the Fiesta Bowl might be out of luck; unless Oklahoma State moves back into the top 14.
The Fiesta will have the second pick (after the Sugar Bowl, because they will be polite and give consent for the Sugar to take the SEC runner-up) and I highly doubt they will take the best non-BCS school which is TCU at this point. That scenario makes it unlikely under Mark Schlabach's scenario of having two non-BCS squads face off, plus that would hurt the non-BCS people want to see David vs. Goliath not David vs. David. Anyways, the Fiesta Bowl would snag USC to be their first choice as long as they did not want to choose an available Big XII team.
Plus, with the rotation of the bowls for 2010 it is likely that the Fiesta who picks third may pass up TCU all together because of travel in favor of another team. That would leave the Sugar Bowl --who picks fourth-- taking nearby TCU to matchup against an SEC team. That reasoning is because of the rotation order:
January 2010 games: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar
That was a little complicated, but check out the projected MWC bowl pairings. Currently the Humanitarian Bowl who has a one year deal with the MWC fifth choice may be left out in the cold, because if TCU makes a BCS game then that would be coming the sixth choice and the Mountain West may not have enouth eligible teams.
|Mark Schlabach||Bruce Feldman|
|Tostitos Fiesta: Boise State vs. TCU||FedEx Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU|
|Bell Helicopter Armed Forces: Air Force vs. SMU||Bell Helicopter Armed Forces: Air Force vs. Tulsa|
|Poinsettia: Brigham Young vs. Oregon State||Poinsettia: Utah vs. Stanford|
|MAACO Bowl Las Vegas: Utah vs. California
||MAACO Bowl Las Vegas: Brigham Young vs. Oregon State|
|New Mexico: Fresno State vs. San Diego State||New Mexico: Louisiana Tech vs. Colorado State|