This is the second week of the official BCS standings and there has been a ton of shake up. The biggest move was that TCU leaped over Boise State this week, and gives them the inside track to their first ever BCS bowl berth. The jump -- in my opinion-- was inevitable but this soon is a big shock. Boise State did what they needed to do by blowing out Hawaii on the road, but the computers dropped Boise from fifth to eighth; while TCU jumped from eighth to fourth.
Now, all TCU has to do is to run the table which includes really only two tough games; the first is a game a home challenge against Utah who is 16th in the current BCS standings, and then the other is a game at Wyoming. While, outsiders may see Wyoming as a push over and easy win; however Wyoming is looking to get to six wins but playing in Laramie in November is a real challenge.
Now, there could be some talk of TCU getting to the BCS title, because they still have a game with Utah who will help their strength of schedule, and possibly balance out the other lesser opponents. However, USC is getting massive love from the human voters even though they have the obvious one loss which is to a 3-5 Washington team, and their best win is over Ohio State who is slightly better then BYU. USC down the stretch has a better schedule with top ten Oregon and Arizona who is in the top 25, and by going off history if USC is to win out will stay ahead of TCU.
Iowa is another odd case because the computer have them at number one and the humans at eight, despite the close win over FCS opponent Northern Iowa by blocking two field goals at the buzzer, fending off Arkansas State by three, and then needing to beat a 4-4 Michigan State team. The computers treat all wins equally because of the removal of margin of victory a few years back. The Hawkeyes do have one good opponent left in Ohio State to prove something to the human voters, and they could be a wildcard for the BCS title if they move up a few spots in the human polls while staying at one.
The odd drops were Cincinatti and Boise State who did what they do by blowing at their opponents, but both droppes three spots. The obvious loser is Boise State this week who is only guaranteed a BCS bowl if they are the highest rated non-BCS team and in the top 12. Boise does not have the schedule the rest of the way for a quality win and would be in the at-large pool and most likely be left out of the cold again if they go undefeated.
Chaos is my goal for the BCS in hope of change, and one way would be for either TCU or Boise State to make the title game, and currently TCU has the best chance because they should meet a top 15 Utah in two weeks. TCU will need help and they will get some by being able to pass the loser of the projected Alabama/Florida loser, but they also need Oregon to beat USC, Iowa to lose to Ohio State, and Texas to lose to Oklahoma State. Even if all of that happens TCU still might jump ahead to number two.
The other scenario which is more likely is to force the BCS to take two non-BCS teams, because that will take money out of the BCS conferences coffers. This is possible if Houston keeps winning and moves into the top 14 and thus must be in the mix. Now, if Utah were to beat TCU that obivously would put Utah in the top 14 and TCU would drop but but still be in the top 14. With this scenario the top 14 would have Boise State (auto-bid), Utah, TCU, and Houston from the non-BCS ranks.
Now, there would still be other scenarios such as all of the big six league champs being in the top 14 which be ten teams between the previous mentioned. There would be three at large spots with one going to the SEC loser and that leaves two spots for three teams. For the non-BCS hope they would need another SEC team in the mix and then hope the non-BCS gets picked.
Again, that is a plausible long shot, but chaos is my goal.
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