The Mountain West tournament begins this Wednesday at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas, and going off of how the season played out logic would dictate this would be a two team race between San Diego State and New Mexico for the tournament title.
However, that is not the case as the tournament is being played on the home court of UNLV. This past season the Rebels did not play all that well and finished fourth in the league and have lost four of their last six games.
Despite all of that, TeamRankings.com gives UNLV a better than 20 percent chance of winning the entire tournament, where as the fourth team is Boise State who is at just under nine. Home court advantage is tied into TeamRankings.com's calculation and that is why UNLV is given such a good chance to make the title game.
With UNLV being the fourth seed, they would play San Diego State in the semifinals and due to that New Mexico actually has an 11 percent better chance to reach the title game over league champion San Diego State. At the other end of the spectrum San Jose State has just given a zero percent chance to win the title and Air Force is just slightly above that at 0.04 percent.
It is surprising to see No. 3 seeded Nevada so far down the list at the seven spot, while Fresno State is up a few ticks despite not being all that great this year with a 9-9 league record, but 16-15 overall.
Also, don't count out Boise State to make a run in this tournament. The Broncos were to challenge for the Mountain West title but things did not go right for them this year, and they have a good shot to make the semifinals where they likely would play New Mexico, a team they beat earlier this year.
Here are the current projections as of Round 1 and they will be updated after each round. The list is sortable from TeamRankings.com.
|1||San Diego St||100.00%||78.90%||47.57%||29.82%|
|11||San Jose St||6.80%||1.36%||0.09%||0.00%|