Prior to the season this game could have seen as a marquee matchup. New Mexico was suppose to improve in the second year under Bob Davie and there was no real reason for San Diego State to take a step down.
Well both teams started poorly but it was San Diego State who has been able to turn things around. The change started when San Diego State changed to Quinn Kaehler took over and helped San Diego State roll off three of four wins, and nearly upset Fresno State.
New Mexico has has had injury issues at the quarterback and if someone other than Cole Gautsche is not under center then the offense is inept. Even though Gautsche is not a great passer he can move the offense, well that is unless other teams stop the up the middle run by Kasey Carrier.
When New Mexico can run up the gut then their pistol option offense works very well, but when UTSA, Pitt and other schools stop up the middle run it cripples the Lobos offense to nothing. That is what San Diego State will likely attempt to do on Saturday night. Rocky Long's 3-3-5 defense will make the adjustments to shutdown the Lobos ground attack.
San Diego State's defense has improved over the past few weeks, it is not great but it is getting better. Even with the improvement the Aztecs defense is still just an all right unit. One would thing that Davie would make adjustments to be able to expand his offense to be successful if a dive or draw play will not work, but then again he doesn't have the talent around him to really change the offense.
The Lobos defense is the real anchor here as they give up 480 yards per game which is 116th in the nation, and with the way Kaehler and the Aztecs offense has been putting up points recently making this game against New Mexico could be a blowout. There is a reason that New Mexico is a 14-point underdog, they just aren't a good team. The Aztecs have a good quarterback in Kaehler and he will shred the Lobos secondary along with the running of the now healthy Adam Muema.
The way that New Mexico could make some noise and possibly even pull off an upset is if they are able to get the inside running game going against San Diego State. If they do that then the Aztecs can't focus on just one part of the offense. That is the real key for New Mexico if they are going to compete, and just maybe come away with a win. However, odd are that is not going to happen, and San Diego State will win by a pair of touchdowns.
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