Week 3: Hawaii Warriors vs. #11 (FCS) Northern Iowa Panthers
When: Sunday, September 14 -- 12:00AM EST
Where: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii
2014 Season: Hawaii 0-2 (0-0 MWC), Northern Iowa 0-1 (0-0)
Radio: Hawaii's ESPN affiliate 1420 AM will broadcast the game. 1540 KXEL will carry the Northern Iowa radio broadcast.
TV: Oceanic Pay-Per-View, Stream for Free on TheMW.com
History: First Meeting
Web: HawaiiAthletics.com, Unipanthers.com
Hawaii has come so close, but the Warriors have fallen to 0-2 to start the season for the second year in a row. One big play was the difference between a loss and an upset of #25 Washington to open the season, and they couldn't complete a furious comeback against Oregon State last week and fell short to the Beavers, 38-30. As if the heartbreaking losses weren't enough, the Warriors lost two of their biggest playmakers in running back Joey Iosefa and linebacker Jerrol-Garcia Williams due to injury. Garcia-Williams is done for the rest of 2014 with a torn ACL, and Iosefa will miss the next 4-6 weeks with an ankle injury. Northern Iowa comes in off their near upset of Iowa at Kinnick Stadium, and like Hawaii, is looking for their first win of 2014. Can the Warriors get past a tough opponent and avoid the upset at home?
What to Watch - Hawaii: Last week was the first real big step back for Ikaika Woolsey in 2014, completing just 40% of his passes and was sacked twice and hurried four times. The pressure was the biggest reason for Woolsey's inaccuracies on Saturday, with either Michael Doctor or D.J. Alexander in his face almost every play. Even when he got the ball out of his hands, the Beavers were on top of it, breaking up eight of Woolsey's passes on the day. The offensive line gets center Kody Afusia back after missing the Oregon State game with a hand injury, and will definitely boost the Hawaii front line with his return.
Biggest offensive question is in the backfield. The loss of Joey Iosefa cuts deep into how effective the Warrior's rushing attack can be until his return. Steven Lakalaka will most likely take the bulk of the carries until Iosefa is back, but there will be a significant drop in production on the ground. Lakalaka is a decent replacement for time being, with a style similar to Iosefa where he pounds his way over defenders at the line of scrimmage, but Iosefa's size made him a more efficient in short-yardage situations. If Lakalaka can at least come close to the numbers Iosefa has put up the first two games, the offense can still be very fluid against the Panthers.
The defense took a big hit early against Oregon State, giving up 464 total yards to the Beavers on Saturday (300 through the air). The secondary gave up big pass after big pass to Sean Mannion, and even though there was improvement as the game progressed, it was concerning how easily OSU moved the ball up the field to start the game. I'm still impressed with how the front seven played, despite allowing their first 100-yard rusher in Terron Ward. They are still creating a lot of pressure in the backfield, with 2.0 sacks and 5 QB hurries on Saturday, and I believe they can still be a very good group as the season progresses.
What to Watch - Northern Iowa: Meanwhile, the Panthers nearly pulled off a big week one upset at Iowa behind a huge performance from All-American David Johnson, who racked up 237 yards of total offense in the 31-23 loss to the Hawkeyes. UNI's offense returns 10 starters, including Johnson, starting QB Sawyer Kollmorgen, and the top five receivers from 2013. They gave Iowa all they could handle in week one offensively, and I would expect them to do nothing less against Hawaii this Saturday.
On the defense, he biggest weapon for the Northern Iowa in the front seven is Xavier Williams. The 300-pound defensive tackle was top three on the team in tackles, sacks, and tackles for loss in 2013, and will bring a lot of pressure up the middle toward Woolsey and the UH run game. In the experienced secondary, Ray Mitchell returns as the Interception leader from last year, with four picks (two for touchdowns) and seven pass deflections. Jake Farley and Max Busher are the top two returning linebackers, combining for 131 tackles and 6.5 tackles for loss. Now, with Farley returning from injury, the production from the LBs should increase significantly in 2014.
Key Match-Up: Hawaii 3-4 vs. David Johnson. All eyes will be on the Hawaii rush defense after allowing their first 100-yard rusher of the year in Terron Ward vs. Oregon State. Their new test will be in the form of David Johnson, who turned in his second career 1,000-yard season with seven different 100+ yard performances in 2013. The All-Missouri Valley and All-America started his Senior campaign with a bang with a 200-plus yards receiving against Iowa, and while he didn't have the usual success he has on the ground, you'll see coach Mark Farley get the ball to Johnson as much as possible on Saturday. If the 'Bows can contain Johnson and get into the backfield early, they may pull out the W in the final game of their three game home-stand.
Prediction: The UNI offense may be one of the better offenses in all of FCS this season, and to slow it down, Hawaii needs to keep doing what they've been doing the first two games and create pressure in the backfield for the quarterback. Iowa was able to force two Sawyer Kollmorgen picks in week one, and the Warriors might be able to do the same if Beau Yap and Kennedy Tulimasealii can burst through and get to Kollmorgen early. With the exception of Terron Ward, the 'Bows rush defense has done relatively well in stopping the run, and keeping David Johnson from finding any holes to run through will dictate the success of the defense this Saturday.
I still believe in Ikaika Woolsey as the quarterback of this team. His throws are still hit and miss in terms of under/overthrowing his guys, and he makes questionable decisions under pressure, but the offense looks very efficient in moving the ball down the field for the most part. While he started the year with a paper-thin receiver group, he's made do and has had success with Quinton Pedroza, Marcus Kemp, and Scott Harding, who have combined for 363 yards through two games. (nearly 82% of Woolsey's passing yards this year!).
The biggest question is at running back. Lakalaka is a good player, but his performance last year as the starter in Iosefa's absence wasn't anything to write home about. (Iosefa out-gained him upon his return) Again, he can have success if the line can create the space for him, but if last week's play-calling from Norm Chow (51 passes to 31 rushes), he may be more willing to let Woolsey sling it while Iosefa is out. This will come down to which offense comes out looking better on Saturday. If we see the Hawaii offense we saw vs. Washington, the 'Bows will take home their first win of the year, but if we see the Hawaii offense we saw in the first half vs. Oregon State, the Panthers will upset the Warriors at home and knock them to 0-3 on the year. I think the 'Bows bounce back this week against UNI, despite the loss of Iosefa for the time being, I think Woolsey steps up with his best game against the Panthers for Hawaii's first win of 2014.
Hawaii 35, Northern Iowa 24