2014 March Madness: Projecting San Diego State against North Dakota State

San Diego State is taking on No. 12 seed North Dakota State on Saturday afternoon.

San Diego State overcame a very poor performance to defeat defeat New Mexico State Thursday night, 73-69, in overtime. This matchup against North Dakota State is not favorable to San Diego State since the Bison have an offense that wants to run and score points, and the Aztecs would rather slow the game down and allow their defensive pressure to get points.

Before we breakdown the game itself, lets get into the nerd stuff and look at some statistics and numbers to predict who will win this game.

Lets first start with FiveThirtyEight.com which is updating the bracket game by game with percentages of how far a team will go.

The Aztecs are given a 65 percent to defeat North Dakota State.

Screen_shot_2014-03-21_at_6

Obviously, this gives North Dakota State a 35 percent chance to win this game:

Screen_shot_2014-03-21_at_6

Over at the Giant Killers blog (E$PN Insider) they are given North Dakota State only 20 percent chance to beat the Aztecs:

San Diego State often struggles to score, with just a 46.8 percent effective field goal percentage. But it does collect 36.1 percent of its own misses, another key in warding off a Killer. That's part of the reason the model assigns this game a 20.1 percent chance of an upset, a good chunk less than NDSU's odds against Oklahoma. At the same time, that figure is higher than all but seven Round of 64 matchups, and it's certainly good enough for the Bison to have a fighting chance.

All signs point to San Diego State winning this game, but so did last year's game against Florida Gulf Coast but Florida

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Mountain West Connection

You must be a member of Mountain West Connection to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Mountain West Connection. You should read them.

Join Mountain West Connection

You must be a member of Mountain West Connection to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Mountain West Connection. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker