2013 college football rankings: Simulated BCS standings place Boise State in top 25

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The BCS standings are still about two months away from being released, but that is not stopping the BCSGuru from simulating the standings with some of the info in place.

The final year of the BCS is here, and that means one more season using a complex formula to determine who plays in the BCS title game, and also to see if a Mountain West, or non-AQ team earns a spot. With the American getting an auto berth this year, and with Louisville in that league, odds are that the Mountain West champion will need to be in the top-12 to get there.

It comes as no surprise that Boise State is the only Mountain West team ranked in the top 25, they come in at No. 22. That puts them clearly in striking distance to make a move. Fresno State gets some consideration at No. 34, Utah State at No. 37 and San Jose State at 43.

Even though Boise State currently does not face any teams in the initial top 25 list below, remember Northern Illinois made a BCS bowl game by starting at No. 46 and faced just one ranked team. That was against Kent State in the MAC title game, plus they also had a loss.

Boise State will just have some work cut for themselves to get to No. 12, but a Mountain West title game hopefully will feature a ranked opponent and help their cause.

Here are the simulated standings, and some explanation of what is used for this formula:


Rank
2012 Team Coaches Coaches % AP AP %% Md* JS KM RB Computers % BCS Conference
1 1 Alabama 1 0.9968 1 0.9987 1 1 1 1 1 0.9985 SEC
2 2 Oregon 3 0.9013 3 0.89 2 2 2 2 0.96 0.9171 P12
3 5 Georgia 5 0.8065 5 0.8327 4 4 4 4 0.88 0.8397 SEC
4 7 Stanford 4 0.8142 4 0.8627 5 5 10 5 0.79 0.8223 P12
5 6 Texas A&M 6 0.7839 7 0.736 3 3 3 3 0.92 0.8133 SEC
6 3 Ohio State 2 0.9206 2 0.91 10 10 17 10 0.57 0.8002 B10
7 8 South Carolina 7 0.7329 6 0.7693 8 8 6 8 0.74 0.7474 SEC
8 11 Clemson 8 0.6755 8 0.722 11 11 14 11 0.57 0.6558 ACC
9 4 Notre Dame 11 0.5626 14 0.4987 6 6 9 6 0.77 0.6104 Ind
10 14 LSU 13 0.5142 12 0.5347 7 7 5 7 0.78 0.6096 SEC
11 9 Florida 10 0.6 10 0.596 12 12 7 12 0.61 0.602 SEC
12 10 Florida State 12 0.5445 11 0.5633 13 13 13 13 0.52 0.5426 ACC
13 29 Oklahoma State 14 0.4684 13 0.5033 9 9 12 9 0.65 0.5406 B12
14 13 Louisville 9 0.6516 9 0.6947



0 0.4488 AA
15 15 Oklahoma 16 0.4 16 0.386 14 14 11 14 0.51 0.432 B12
16 19 Texas 15 0.4013 15 0.4513 15 15 16 15 0.43 0.4275 B12
17 24 Michigan 17 0.38 17 0.354 19 19 20 19 0.27 0.3347 B10
18 25 Nebraska 18 0.2748 18 0.2547 24 24 25 24 0.07 0.1998 B10
19 33 TCU 20 0.2581 20 0.2153 22 22
22 0.12 0.1978 B12
20 12 Kansas State 26 0.0729 31 0.0287 16 16 8 16 0.48 0.1939 B12
21 35 Wisconsin 23 0.111 23 0.1233 17 17 19 17 0.34 0.1914 B10
22 18 Boise State 19 0.271 19 0.2187 25 25
25 0.03 0.1732 MWC
23 26 Baylor 29 0.0516 27 0.0613 18 18 15 18 0.35 0.1543 B12
24 20 Oregon State 25 0.0871 25 0.086 20 20 18 20
0.1444 P12
25 NR USC 24 0.1065 24 0.0893 21 21 24 21 0.17 0.1219 P12
26 17 Northwestern 22 0.12 22 0.1327 23 23
23 0.09 0.1142 B10
27 31 UCLA 21 0.1303 21 0.1907



0 0.107 P12
28 NR Miami (Fla.) 27 0.0652 29 0.0567



0 0.0406 ACC
29 NR Michigan State 28 0.0574 26 0.0633



0 0.0403 B10
30 NR Virginia Tech 30 0.0419 28 0.0573



0 0.0331 ACC
31 23 Vanderbilt 34 0.0187 33 0.0127

21
0.05 0.0271 SEC
32 NR Arizona State 32 0.0329 30 0.0353



0 0.0227 P12
33 NR Ole Miss 33 0.0206 36 0.0073

22
0.04 0.0227 SEC
34 NR Fresno State 31 0.04 32 0.024



0 0.0213 MWC
35 NR BYU 36 0.0129 43 0.0007

23
0.03 0.0145 Ind
36 22 Northern Illinois 37 0.0123 35 0.0107



0 0.0076 MAC
37 16 Utah State 35 0.0148 37 0.0053



0 0.0067 MWC
38 NR North Carolina 37 0.0123 39 0.002



0 0.0048 ACC
39 NR Washington 43 0.0019 34 0.0113



0 0.0044 P12
40 30 Tulsa 39 0.0058 0



0 0.0019 CUSA
41 NR Arizona 42 0.0032 39 0.002



0 0.0017 P12
42 NR Ohio 40 0.0052 0



0 0.0017 MAC
43 21 San Jose State 40 0.0052 0



0 0.0017 MWC
44 NR Georgia Tech 0 38 0.004



0 0.0013 ACC
45 28 Cincinnati 43 0.0019 39 0.002



0 0.0013 AA
46 NR East Carolina 43 0.0019 0


0 0.0006 CUSA
46 NR Kent State 43 0.0019 0



0 0.0006 MAC
46 NR Mississippi State 43 0.0019 0



0 0.0006 SEC
49 27 Penn State* 0 42 0.0013



0 0.0004 B10
50 33 Central Florida 48 0.0013 0



0 0.0004 AA
51 32 Arkansas State 49 0.0006 0



0 0.0002 Sun
51 NR Arkansas 49 0.0006 0



0 0.0002 SEC
51 NR Rutgers 49 0.0006 0



0 0.0002 AA
51 NR Tennessee 49 0.0006 0



0 0.0002 SEC
51 NR Toledo 49 0.0006 0



0 0.0002 MAC

Keys: 2012 = Final 2012 Associated Press poll; Md = Median ranking of 24 computer ratings; JS = Jeff Sagarin; KM = Kenneth Massey MOV; RB = Richard Billingsley.

Explanation: This rankings method is a simulation of the actual BCS standings with the following variations: 1) The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Interactive Poll, which is not published until after the first weekend of October; 2) Three of the six BCS computer ratings are available -- Jeff Sagarin, Kenneth Massey and Richard Billingsley; 3) The other three computer ratings -- Anderson & Hester, Colley Matrix and Peter Wolfe -- will not be available until mid-September or October, so they're replaced by the median ranking of 24 computer ratings.

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